AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Bears defend 50-day SMA as intervention risks linger

AUD/JPY trades sideways near multi-decade highs as traders monitor the risk of intervention from Japanese authorities with USD/JPY holding above 160.
Japanese officials reiterate their readiness to respond to excessive currency moves.
Wide interest-rate differentials continue to weigh on the Japanese Yen and underpin Yen crosses.

Vishal Chaturvedi FXStreet

AUD/JPY extends its sideways price action on Monday near levels last seen in September 1990, as persistent weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY) keeps the cross supported while fears of another intervention by Japanese authorities limit further gains. At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 113.00, easing from an intraday high of 113.44.

The Japanese Yen remains under pressure, with USD/JPY trading near 161.50, close to its weakest level since 1986. The move has revived concerns over another intervention by Japanese authorities after Tokyo stepped into the market earlier this year when USD/JPY rose above 160.00.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated on Monday that authorities stand ready to respond to excessive currency moves if necessary.

Against this backdrop, Yen crosses are likely to remain volatile. Meanwhile, wide interest-rate differentials between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and other major central banks remain a headwind for the Japanese Yen.

Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on this week's economic calendar, including Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and labor market data, as well as Tokyo inflation figures. These releases are likely to set the tone for near-term price action in AUD/JPY.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 113.63 while still trading above the 100-day SMA at 112.16, which leaves the cross in a neutral-to-bearish near-term stance.

The broader uptrend backdrop defined by the 200-day SMA near 107.10 remains intact, but a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) around the mid-40s hint that upside momentum is fading and that rallies could struggle while price stays capped beneath the 50-day SMA.

On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 50-day SMA around 113.63, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current corrective tone and reopen the path toward higher highs. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day SMA near 112.16, ahead of the horizontal floor around 110.00, while the 200-day SMA at 107.10 stands as a deeper medium-term support should selling extend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.38%	-0.07%	0.11%	0.04%	0.12%	0.43%	0.23%
EUR	-0.38%		-0.46%	-0.26%	-0.36%	-0.23%	0.07%	-0.15%
GBP	0.07%	0.46%		0.19%	0.13%	0.22%	0.53%	0.32%
JPY	-0.11%	0.26%	-0.19%		-0.07%	0.00%	0.31%	0.14%
CAD	-0.04%	0.36%	-0.13%	0.07%		0.07%	0.37%	0.21%
AUD	-0.12%	0.23%	-0.22%	-0.01%	-0.07%		0.33%	0.13%
NZD	-0.43%	-0.07%	-0.53%	-0.31%	-0.37%	-0.33%		-0.18%
CHF	-0.23%	0.15%	-0.32%	-0.14%	-0.21%	-0.13%	0.18%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Vishal Chaturvedi

FXStreet

I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.

GBP/USD hovers around daily lows near 1.3450

GBP/USD trades with decent losses on Thursday, revisiting the 1.3450 zone. Cable’s resumption of the selling interest comes after two daily advances in a row and follows the improved sentiment around the Greenback amid fresh concerns in the Middle East.

EUR/USD weakens amid Middle East tensions

EUR/USD extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.1520 during the Asian hours. The currency pair faces downward pressure as the US Dollar gains strength, propelled by renewed safe-haven demand among global investors.

How Wall Street rigs the game [Video]

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Peter Antico and Sean Stone to discuss the Paradigm of Money - an in-depth expose of financial market corruption, from naked shorting to the two-tier system that protects Wall Street.

US Dollar: NFP and inflation mix complicate Fed path

BNY strategists John Velis and David Tam highlight the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases as key inputs for the Fed. They see consensus around 80,000 jobs, with a breakeven near 50,000 to keep unemployment steady. A weaker print could lower 2-year yields and rate-hike expectations.

Markets question Fed's inflation resolve after July FOMC meeting

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh continues to project a tough stance on inflation, repeatedly promising to restore price stability and keep inflation anchored at the central bank's longstanding 2% target. But according to Mike Maharrey in this week's Money Metals Midweek Memo, markets are beginning to judge the Fed by its actions rather than its rhetoric—and so far, they aren't convinced.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.