EUR/CHF: Short-term bounce, longer-term decline – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects EUR/CHF to rise in coming months as the Euro (EUR) recovers and markets push back Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate hikes, with the bank’s strategy combining verbal intervention and steady rates. However, lower Swiss inflation and stronger public finances should reassert Swiss Franc strength later, with EUR/CHF projected to trend lower again into 2027.

SNB tactics support near-term EUR/CHF

"In early March, it seemed that the SNB had lost patience with the strength of the Swiss franc. It intervened verbally several times, thereby halting the currency’s appreciation in the short term. EUR/CHF is likely to rise further over the next few months if the euro recovers and the SNB interest rate hikes expected by the market are delayed."

"In this regard, SNB market expectations currently offer an alternative. Market expectations of rate hikes have moved forward significantly since the outbreak of the Iran war; roughly one rate hike is currently priced in by the end of the year. In our view, however, a rate hike this year is highly unlikely."

"Amid the ECB rate hike we expect in June, we anticipate that interest rates will remain unchanged, which is likely to widen the interest rate differential with the euro and make the franc less attractive."

"We expect the SNB's strategy in the coming months to consist of a combination of verbal (but only small actual) interventions and unchanged interest rates. This may be enough to push EUR/CHF up by a further two centimes once the recent weakness of the euro has been priced out of the market."

"In the long term, however, the SNB is unlikely to be able to weaken the franc sufficiently through interventions or changes to the key interest rate alone. Inflation is likely to remain lower than in other countries, while public finances are likely to look considerably healthier. If this comes back into focus at the end of the year, EUR/CHF is likely to trend lower again."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)