EUR/CAD holds gains near 1.6000 as oil eases, Eurozone HICP eyed

EUR/CAD remains stronger as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar weakens on softer oil prices.
WTI weakens as Trump signals willingness to halt Iran war despite Strait of Hormuz remaining largely closed.
German Retail Sales fell 0.6% MoM in February, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/CAD has recovered its recent losses from the previous trading day, hovering around 1.5990 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid softer oil prices, which could be attributed to growing speculation that US President Donald Trump could end the Iran conflict, easing fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price depreciates after four days of gains, trading around $99.60 per barrel at the time of writing. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump signaled to aides a willingness to halt the campaign against the Iran war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut. Analysts view the price drop as a short-term reaction, noting that a lasting decline would depend on fully restored flows through the strait.

The EUR/CAD cross remains stronger as the Euro (EUR) holds ground despite the release of weaker-than-expected German Retail Sales data. Traders’ attention is shifted toward German Unemployment and preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data later in the day.

German Retail Sales contracted 0.6% Month-on-Month (MoM) in February, against the market expectations of the 0.2% increase. In January, the data declined by 1.1%, revised lower from -0.9%. The annual Retail Sales grew at a moderate pace of 0.7%, against 1% estimates and the prior release of 1%, revised lower from 1.2%.

Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday that policymakers stand ready to act if energy-driven inflation broadens. Villeroy also noted that the Iran war-related energy shock is likely to be inflationary in the near term, though the European Central Bank cannot prevent the initial surge in prices.

(This story was corrected on March 31 at 11:11 GMT to say that the prior release of the annual German Retail Sales was 1%, and not 1.2%.)

Economic Indicator

Retail Sales (MoM)

The Retail Sales released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales.The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. The positive economic growth usually anticipates "Bullish" for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR.

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