Elliott Wave outlook: XLI testing support at the inflection area [Video]

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) achieved a new all‑time high in March 2026, reinforcing the view that the dominant trend remains to the upside. The advance from the April 2025 low, however, has unfolded in only three waves, which implies that further gains are still favored. From the April 2025 bottom, wave (1) concluded at $155.15, followed by a corrective pullback in wave (2) that ended at $147.13.

Wave (3) then carried prices higher, reaching $179.31 as reflected in the one‑hour chart. The subsequent decline formed wave (4), which is proposed complete at $170.21. Internally, this correction developed as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Specifically, wave A ended at $172.67 and wave B rebounded to $178.21. Wave C declined to $170.21, thereby completing wave (4).

XLI 60-Minute Elliott Wave chart

This termination level coincides with the support zone derived from the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave A. The blue box on the chart highlights this area, spanning $166.31 to $170.86. As long as XLI remains above $166.31, which represents the 161.8% extension, the expectation is for the ETF to resume its upward trajectory. At minimum, another rally in three waves should unfold, consistent with the prevailing bullish structure. The alignment of Fibonacci support with the completion of wave (4) strengthens the case for continued upside.

XLI Elliott Wave video