ECB’s Nagel: German growth likely to accelerate in Q4

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The comments from Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, also a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council, released during the European trading session on Wednesday, signaled that he is optimistic on German economic growth in the last quarter this year. However, Nagel warned that the growth won’t be broad-based.

Additional remarks

German recovery stronger than forecast.

Our interim assessments point to a stronger recovery than we were expecting in the summer.

Economic growth is likely to accelerate in the fourth quarter.

However, the recovery is not yet broad-based.

Private consumption remains subdued, and investment in machinery and equipment declined in the second quarter.

Market reaction

There is a sharp sell-off in the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD)during the release of ECB Nagel's remarks. However, the decline appears to be the outcome of an upside move in the US Dollar. As of writing, EUR/USD is down 0.15% to near 1.1140.

ECB FAQs

What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro?

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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