Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that the markets have the ECB meeting to look forward to today, which although will likely be short of any policy changes, should be made all the more interesting by what is or isn’t said on TLTRO.
“In terms of what our economists expect today, Mark Wall feels like any policy announcement would be a positive surprise. He notes that the latest comments from Council members imply that even the hawks have turned less optimistic. The “patience” mantra is consistent with extending the time commitment to unchanged policy rates for six months. However, the uncertain duration of the economic weakness has the centre of the committee signalling a wait and see approach, in particular with the TLTRO decision. Mark believes that one option for the Council would be to extend forward guidance as a down-payment to buy market goodwill while the ECB examines what it can do and needs to do on TLTROs.”
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