Details for the day ahead - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities offered their outlook for the day ahead broken down by currency.

Key Quotes:

"AUD The trade balance for Jul is expected to be a surplus of +$A1.7b (mkt +$A1.45b) after guidance from the recent Chinese trade report suggesting bumper imports (+0.9%/m) slightly outpacing still solid exports (+0.5%/m).

SEK We’re in line with the unanimous consensus looking for the Riksbank to keep the policy rate on hold at -0.50% at 08:30 BST, and we anticipate a 4-2 vote in favour of a hold. The main focus for markets will be the Riksbank’s policy rate forecasts, especially as the timing of the first rate hike draws closer and closer (see our preview here). While it’s a close call given the persistent downside surprises to the Riksbank's CPIF ex-energy forecasts, we believe that the inflation data overall has been just strong enough to allow the Riksbank to maintain its rate hike forecast for Q4 this year. However, views on this are mixed among the analyst community, and the odds of the Riksbank pushing back the first rate hike into Q1 are around 1 in 3 in our view.

EUR German factory orders for July are released, and the market is looking for a 1.8% m/m rebound after a disappointing 4% decline in June.

USD The market looks for ADP employment to rise by 193k in August ahead of the official jobs data on Friday. Afterwards, ISM Non-manufacturing will give an update on momentum in the services sector at 10:00 ET with markets looking for a pick up to 56.8. Revisions to Q2 nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs (market: 2.9%, 0.9%, both unchanged from preliminary release) and initial jobless claims for September 1st (market: 213k) round out the data calendar.

CAD Building permits for July are the lone data release, with the market looking for a 0.5% m/m increase.

BRL August inflation is expected to decrease on annual basis to 4.29% down from the prior 4.48%. The temporary surge in inflation due to the truckers strike appears to have faded away. Slow economic recovery continues to weigh on unemployment, which is still in double digits, suggesting that the central bank should be in no rush to raise interest rates despite the currency pressure. We do not expect BCB to hike until Q1 2019.

HUF August IP growth is expected at 8.0% Y/Y, up from the prior 3.1%. August manufacturing PMI came out at 56.2 from a prior 53.3 indicating that production growth is likely to increase.

ZAR The CA deficit for Q2 is expected at -3.3% GDP, slightly less than the -4.8% recorded in Q1. Slightly lower deficit is expected because in Q2 South Africa ran a trade surplus of 16.9bn rand, after running a deficit of -16.7bn rand in Q1."