Denmark: Spending resilience with higher energy costs – Danske Bank

Danske Bank’s Louise Aggerstrøm Hansen and Asger Wilhelm Dalsjö report that Danish private consumption strengthened in March, with real spending excluding energy up 1.2% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year. Retail and grocery spending continued to recover, and services such as beauty, travel and leisure also expanded. Higher energy prices lifted gas-station outlays but did not materially crowd out other categories.

Danish consumers lift real spending

"Adjusting for seasonality and prices, spending excluding energy increased by 1.2% in March compared to February, driven by higher consumption across both goods and services. Real spending excluding energy in March climbed 3.8% higher than in March 2025. The timing of Easter is likely an explanation for the high growth y/y."

"Real retail spending rose 1.2% m/m in March. Real grocery spending rose 0.6% m/m, continuing the upward trend seen since October 2025. This marks a notable shift following a prolonged period from mid-2024 when consumers consistently reduced their real grocery spending and is likely a product of food prices no longer rising rapidly."

"Spending at gas stations rose 12.4% m/m in nominal terms in March, reflecting higher gasoline and diesel prices. However, nominal spending is only back at 2024 levels. This relatively modest effect, all things considered, also reflects a significant shift in the Danish car stock, where households are rapidly shifting from fossil fuel cars to electrical cars in recent years."

"Real spending rose across the service sector in March. Beauty and barber shops, along with travel-related services, recorded a significant increase, while other services, such as restaurants, bars, tourist attractions, and cinemas, saw more moderate growth."

"Despite rising energy prices in March, we have not seen this cannibalise other types of spending. The timing of Easter might muddle the picture slightly, but overall spending improved across the board in March."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)