AUD/USD: bearish long term outlook; 0.8600?

Ross J Burland FXStreet

FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is trading at 0.9343, up 0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9354 and low at 0.9324.

AUD/USD has been quite resilient of late, how every, while official Capex data should bolster the mood of the policy makers, Jane Foley Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank suggested that it is clear that headwinds still cloud the outlook and this suggests risk that the RBA could again attempt to jawbone the AUD to lower levels. “That said, the AUD is still seen as offering positive carry and we expect that this will limit downside potential in AUD/USD near-term. Over the coming 3 mth we expect the AUD/USD 0.92 to 0.93 to contain most activity. On a 12 mth view, we look for a move towards 0.86. This assumes a broad based recovery for the USD as the first hike in the Fed funds rate near”.

AUD/USD hourly levels

Spot is presently trading at 0.9343, and next resistance can be seen at 0.9345 (Daily Classic PP), 0.9354 and 0.9360 (Daily Classic R1). Support below can be found at 0.9343 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.9341 (Daily 100 SMA), 0.9339 (Hourly 100 SMA), and 0.9329 (Weekly Classic PP).

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD flirts with 1.3500 as USD finds fresh demand

GBP/USD is flatlining near the 1.3500 level in Europe on Tuesday, facing some pressure from renewed US Dollar demand as a safe-haven amid surging Oil prices and inflationary concerns. The focus now remains on the Middle East headlines, with Wednesday's US CPI data the key event risk this week.

EUR/USD stays weak near 1.1550 amid US-Iran impasse

EUR/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction and hovers near the 1.1550 area in the European session. Traders seem hesitant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis and this week's release of the latest US inflation figures.

Gold off two-month highs, back below $4,400 amid surging Oil prices

Gold retreats from its highest level since June 5 at $4,435, touched earlier this Tuesday, and slides back below the $4,400 mark in European trading. Surging Oil prices, amid the US-Iran impasse on talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, rekindled inflation concerns, lending support to the US DOllar at the expense of the non-yielding bullion.

Pi Network holds at key support as broader market declines

Pi Network steadies around $0.08745 after two consecutive days of losses, capped below the $0.1000 psychological threshold. Retail demand in PI derivatives remains firm, with Open Interest above $9 million, even as broader crypto market sentiment wanes. Technically, PI faces a steeper correction, as it lacks upside momentum to support a near-term recovery.

The inflation narrative is still way more important than the employment story

Core bonds sold off yesterday with the belly of the curve slightly underperforming in the US while European curves showed more of a bear flattening. Daily changes on the US curve varied between +4.7 bps (2-yr) and +6.4 bps (7-yr).

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.