Copper: Tariff risks and Chile supply strain – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analyst Norman Liebke reports that the Copper market is focused on a potential 15% US import tariff on refined Copper, which could temporarily boost US demand and prices if implemented in 2027. At the same time, Barbara Lambrecht highlights worsening supply from Chile, where mine output is falling, reinforcing concerns about tight global Copper ore availability.

US policy and Chile output concerns

"The fact that there has been no report from Lutnick so far has put downward pressure on copper prices."

"Should he decide to impose the import tariff, it would take effect on January 1, 2027, and would likely trigger a surge in demand in the US in the meantime, pushing the price of copper higher."

"If a tariff is ruled out, the market could see some relief."

"This is because the situation at the pressure point of global copper production appears to be worsening: Chile’s statistics office reported a nearly 13% year-on-year decline in copper mine production for May, following similarly disappointing figures for April."

"As recently as this spring, Chile’s copper commission, Cochilco, had forecast a slight decline of just 2% for this year, to be followed by a 4% recovery next year."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)