Copper: Tariff distortions unwind, prices seen lower – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts describe Copper’s current strength as driven by speculative positioning, tariff-related arbitrage and supply disruption headlines rather than genuine global shortage. Looking ahead, they expect softer demand, normalization of trade flows and returning mine capacity to erode tightness and pull Copper down from present elevated levels as surpluses emerge through 2027.

From speculative tightness to surplus

"Our copper price projections remain constructive, as money managers continue to double down on the red metal."

"With little clarity around Section 232 tariffs, a supportive arbitrage continues to draw copper into the U.S., reshuffling inventories across regions rather than reflecting an outright global shortage of metal."

"Supply disruption headlines, including the DRC's immediate ban on concentrate exports, have added another layer of concern, helping to drive prices higher and offset weakening industrial demand."

"Looking ahead, we expect softer demand and a normalization of tariff-driven trade flows to erode some of the tightness currently embedded in copper prices."

"As a result, improving market fundamentals should pull copper down from the $14,000+/t levels currently reflected in the market."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)