CME Group FedWatch's odds of a June rate hike rise back to 78.5%

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

President Trump’s visit to the Middle East has shifted the focus away from the political turmoil, while the Fed policymakers continue to signal potential for 2 more rate hikes this year.

Consequently, the odds of a 25 basis point rate hike this year have moved back to 78%. CME Group FedWatch tool, which calculates unconditional probabilities of Federal Open Market

Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes to generate a binary probability tree, on Wednesday, had shown that the chances of a rate hike in June fell to 64.6%.
About two weeks back, the probability was seen at 87.7%.

Focus on Fed speak

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will make public appearances today.

The Fed rate hike odds could revisit the highs seen around 87% if the policymakers brush aside the political uncertainty and talk about rate hikes and balance sheet normalization.

On Wednesday, the Fed will release the minutes of its most recent policy meeting at 18:00 GMT.

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

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