Chinese Yuan: Rangebound trade against US Dollar guided by PBoC fix – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect USD/CNH to stay broadly rangebound near term, with the daily People's Bank of China (PBoC) fix clustered around 6.79 and acting as an anchor rather than a directional signal. They note mild bearish momentum on the daily chart but stress two-way moves, with support at 6.7660/6.7540 and resistance at 6.78/6.7840/6.80, while broader USD moves and China’s external surplus remain key drivers.

Stable fix points to two way moves

"USD/CNH remained broadly rangebound last week, with the daily fix staying tightly clustered around 6.79 and ending Friday little changed from the previous week."

"While the fixing continued to come in weaker than market estimates, this has been a persistent feature for some time. Instead, the relatively stable fix suggests the PBoC remains comfortable allowing measured two-way moves, without encouraging a sharper RMB appreciation."

"Broader USD moves, risk sentiments remain important drivers, while China’s large external surplus and potential exporter USD selling offered some underlying support."

"Near-term, USD/CNH is likely to trade rangebound, with the daily fix anchoring the pace of moves rather than providing a strong directional cue. USD/CNH last seen at 6.7720 levels."

"Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is flat. 2-way trades likely for now. Support at 6.7660, 6.7540 (recent low in Jul). Resistance at 6.78, 6.7840 (21, 50 DMAs) and 6.80."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)