Chinese Yuan: Gradual appreciation view – MUFG

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

MUFG analysts Lin Li and Khang Sek Lee note that July data point to weaker Chinese growth and a widening divergence between the "new" and "traditional" economy. Despite short-term production disruptions from Middle East risks and extreme weather, they highlight persistently weak demand and the need for more policy stimulus. MUFG maintains its forecast for USD/CNY to reach 6.65 by end-2026.

MUFG keeps 2026 Yuan forecast

"July data indicates a slowdown in aggregate economic momentum, with growth decline seen in IP, retail sales, FAI and main property activity indicators."

"While factors, like the renewed risk of conflict in the Middle East, and natural disasters such as typhoons, heavy rainfall, and extreme heat, exerted some short-term negative pressure on the productions of certain sectors, overall demand remained weak, necessitating further policy stimulus."

"Government may accelerate the pace of project pipeline development and the disbursement of funds. We expect infrastructure investment to pick up from September onwards."

"We maintain the view of USD/CNY to reach 6.65 by the end of 2026."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 on fresh USD supply

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar retreats from 17-month highs as traders take profits off the table ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar draws support from reviving expectations of a November interest rate hike amid elevated global yields and inflation risks.

USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 as USD retreats ahead of NFP

USD/JPY is struggling for fresh impetus near 158.00, moving away from the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI and amid a broad US Dollar retreat. Traders reposition themselves ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold fades the earlier optimism; back below $4,200

Gold could not sustain the post-NFP bull run past the $4,200 mark per troy ounce, receding toward the $4,180 region at the end of the week. The precious metal’s inconclusive price action comes amid fresh selling pressure hurting the US Dollar as investors assess the latest NFP data.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP gains reinforce bullish outlook

Cryptocurrency prices are broadly recovering on Friday, led by Bitcoin moving above $86,000. Ethereum has reaffirmed its bullish outlook, rising above $2,700 while the immediate area at $2,800 caps upside. Meanwhile, Ripple hovers near $1.54.

Week ahead – Fed minutes in the spotlight amid bond market rout

Energy crisis and soaring bond yields to stay in driver’s seat in quiet week. Fed minutes eyed after drop in October rate hike bets. ISM services PMI and Treasury auctions to be watched too. Canadian employment, Japanese wages and ECB minutes also on tap.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.