China: Growth seen improving in 1Q – DBS

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

DBS Group Research economists Byron Lam and Daisy Sharma present a China GDP Nowcast indicating real GDP growth likely improved to 4.7% in 1Q 2026 from 4.5% in Q4 2025. They highlight solid early‑year data, with industrial activity and external demand supporting growth, while consumption is stable and investment and credit remain weak. Annual GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4.5% in 2026.

Nowcast points to stronger first quarter

"This week’s featured insight is GDP Nowcast, which is best viewed as an estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data and forecasts for the current quarter."

"Monthly data releases for Jan-Feb show that China has started 2026 on a solid footing."

"As per our Nowcast model, GDP growth is projected to improve to 4.7% in 1Q from 4.5% in Q4 last year."

"Growth in Q1 will be supported by strong industrial activity and external demand for Chinese goods, while consumption remained broadly stable."

"We expect China’s annual GDP growth to moderate to 4.5% in 2026 (5.0% in 2025). Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and higher oil prices, specifically Brent averaging USD100 in rest of the year, present mild downside risks to China's growth, potentially leading to a 0.5ppt fall in GDP."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD trims gains, back to around 1.3500

GBP/USD now surrenders part of the earlier move to multi-week peaks around 1.3530 and comes close to the 1.3500 support on Monday. Cable’s uptick comes in tandem with decent gains in the Greenback, always amid persistent uncertainty lingering over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran talks.

EUR/USD slips to daily lows near 1.1540

EUR/USD now loses further momentum and recedes toward the 1.1540 zone, or daily lows, on Monday. The pair’s bearish performance action comes as investors continue to assess Friday’s disappointing US jobs data in a context where renewed tensions in the Middle East lend decent support to the US Dollar.

Gold clings to daily gains; focus is back to $4,400

Gold picks up pace and advances past the $4,350 mark per troy ounce, adding to Friday’s gains. That said, the yellow metal keeps pushing harder despite the better tone in the US Dollar, and is closely following the Fed’s interest-rate outlook as well as developments in the Middle East

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP eye short-term recovery amid ETF inflows

Cryptocurrency prices are gaining traction on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above $65,000, Ethereum (ETH) holding the near-term $1,900 support and Ripple (XRP) hovering above the critical $1.00 demand zone. The broad recovery comes amid capital inflows through US-listed Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

US Payrolls miss – RBA on deck tomorrow

It would be remiss of me not to kick off this morning’s report with a rundown of last Friday’s US jobs report, which was a belter. Headline payrolls fell by 23,000, versus expectations of an 80,000 gain. The BLS noted that May was revised down by 66,000 (from 129,000) and June by 37,000 (from 57,000), resulting in combined May-June revisions of 103,000 lower than previous reports.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.