Canadian Dollar slips as Fed hawkish stance lifts US Dollar
- USD/CAD holds ground as the US Dollar gained traction on growing expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve.
- CME FedWatch tool suggests that traders are now pricing in above 60% probability of a Fed rate hike by September.
- Declining safe-haven demand for the Greenback was balanced by a weaker Canadian Dollar as oil prices fell.
USD/CAD remains stronger for the second successive day, hovering around 1.4230 during the European session on Tuesday. The currency pair steadies as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on growing expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve interest rate path. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in above 60% probability of a Fed interest rate hike by September.
Traders are looking ahead to Wednesday's US ADP employment data and Thursday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for clues on the Federal Reserve's next policy moves. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could reinforce the Fed's "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance, potentially dampening appetite for risk-sensitive assets.
The USD/CAD pair remains resilient, as a decline in safe-haven demand for the US Dollar is offset by a weaker Canadian Dollar (CAD). The commodity-linked Loonie dollar faces downward pressure from lower crude oil prices as market participants weigh in on potential US-Iran peace talks in Doha under a fragile interim ceasefire.
However, while US-Iran diplomatic signals remain highly conflicted, with US President Donald Trump announcing that the two nations were set to hold fresh peace talks on Tuesday, Tehran contradicted this claim, stating that no negotiation meetings are scheduled with Washington. Tehran reiterated its intent to oversee traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, even if Oman opts out of joint oversight.
Traders are also awaiting Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for May later this week to gain fresh signals on economic momentum. Market participants continue to expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep interest rates on hold through most of the year.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
