Canadian Dollar rises as US Dollar declines on fading safe-haven demand

USD/CAD declines as the US Dollar loses ground following reports of a US-Iran peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The CAD faces pressure as WTI oil falls after Trump announced an agreement making the Strait of Hormuz "permanently toll-free."
Iran stated final talks depend on US compliance, demanding an immediate and complete end to the maritime blockade.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

USD/CAD depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 1.3970 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency pair is under downward pressure as the US Dollar declines broadly, driven by a sharp reduction in market risk aversion. This shift follows major geopolitical breakthroughs indicating that the United States and Iran have agreed on a comprehensive peace deal to end their nearly four-month conflict and fully reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

However, the downside for the USD/CAD pair could be limited because the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may face its own headwinds. As Canada is the largest crude exporter to the US, the CAD is highly sensitive to oil prices, which have plummeted significantly on the back of the de-escalation.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell over 4%, trading near $79.60 per barrel following reports from The New York Times that US President Trump announced the agreement would ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains "permanently toll-free."

The geopolitical shift gained traction after Bloomberg reported Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's confirmation that both nations had agreed to an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.

While Iran's National Security Council confirmed the ceasefire, Iranian officials noted that final talks will only commence once the US fulfills its commitments under the memorandum of understanding, emphasizing that the maritime blockade against Iran must end immediately and entirely.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

GBP/USD advaces towards 1.3450 after BoE decision, US Q2 GDP

GBP/USD gains positive momentum on Thursday, approaching 1.3450 and trading at fresh multi-week highs. The Bank of England decided to maintain the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%. The MPC voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold, with the 3 dissenters favoring a rate hike. US Q2 GDP missing expectations helped the pair advance, while renewed US Dollar weakness across the FX board pushes the pair further up ahead of the monthly close.

EUR/USD jumps above 1.1500, highest in six weeks

The EUR/USD pair trades north of 1.1500 in the American session on Thursday, reaching fresh six-week highs. The US Dollar is in sell-off mode, with multiple factors weighing on the American currency. Not only did the Federal Reserve vote divided to keep rates on hold on Wednesday, creating doubts about a September hike, but US Q2 GDP missed expectations. A suspected JPY intervention adds pressure on the Greenback.

Gold recovers the $4,100 level as US Dollar weakens further

Gold trades just above $4,100 amid a US Dollar sell-off. The Greenback enjoyed some near-term demand following Wednesday's post-FOMC downfall, but was unable to retain its gains. The preliminary estimate of the US Q2 GDP showed the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.5%, missing the market's expectations of 2.1%.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP builds recovery momentum as whales increase exposure

Ripple (XRP) rises toward the pivotal $1.10 resistance on Thursday, marking three consecutive days of gains. This neutral-to-slightly bullish outlook follows the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

The FOMC: Rates left on hold; dollar falls as Warsh fails to vote for hike

The Fed kept interest rates on hold today, defying a 30% chance in the Fed Funds Futures market that rates would rise. The Committee voted 9-3 to keep rates on hold, with governors Kashkari, Hammack and Logan all voting to hike rates due to concerns about inflation. The immediate market reaction has been a sharp drop in the USD on a broad basis.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.