|

British Pound steadies as weak US data counters Iran risk

  • US housing and industrial output miss, pressuring the Dollar.
  • UK jobs weakness keeps focus on Wednesday’s inflation report.
  • FOMC Minutes could reshape Fed rate path expectations next.

The Pound Sterling steadies on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions rise in the Middle East, while housing data misses estimates and US Industrial Production decelerates. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3547.

GBP/USD steadies as weak US data offsets geopolitical risks

Geopolitics is back in the driver’s seat of the financial markets as US President Donald Trump said no talks are ongoing with Iran, that the US naval blockade remains in full force, and that the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating.

Meanwhile, Fars reported that an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader says Iran remains committed to logic and dialogue but will not equate negotiation with surrender. In addition, Al Jazeera reports that Iran’s Foreign Minister said that the US goal for the war is Iran’s surrender, adding that “America is begging to negotiate with us now”.

US Housing Starts in July fell 12.4% MoM, from June’s 1.415 million to 1.239 million, due to higher mortgage rates, which have spiked since the beginning of the Middle East conflict, and elevated home prices. At the same time, the Federal Reserve (Fed) reported that Industrial Production for July dipped from the expected 0.3% to 0.2% MoM.

In the UK, jobs data revealed weakness, with the Unemployment Rate exceeding estimates at 4.8% and coming in at 4.9% in June. The data didn’t move the needle regarding the path of interest rates set by the Bank of England (BoE), with eyes turning to Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Estimates see UK headline inflation at 2.9% YoY, up from 2.6%, while core CPI is foreseen at 2.5% YoY, down from 2.6%. As of writing, money markets see the BoE holding rates at the September 17 meeting, with odds being at 72%. For December, the chances remain close to 78%, according to Prime Terminal.

Source: Prime Terminal

In the US, traders await the FOMC's latest Meeting Minutes for clues on the US central bank's interest rate path.

GBP/USD price forecast: Technical outlook

Chart Analysis GBP/USD
GBP/USD daily chart

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3547, retaining a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the simple moving average cluster around 1.3381 and a series of reclaimed trend-line levels turned support beneath the market. The Moving Average Triple (simple) sits comfortably below price, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 63.9 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum remains constructive as long as the pair defends the mid-1.35 region.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the recent trend-line break around 1.3502, followed by the former resistance trend-line break near 1.3414 and the moving average area around 1.3381, before an additional rising trend-line base at 1.3358. On the topside, the next notable resistance comes from the higher upward trend-line break near 1.3603, and a sustained move above this barrier would open the door for a continuation of the advance while keeping pullbacks towards 1.3502–1.3414 as potential buying opportunities.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

(This story was corrected on August 18 at 15:00 GMT to say that GBP/USD trades near 1.3547, not 1.35846.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.03%-0.03%0.05%0.01%0.00%0.27%0.09%
EUR0.03%0.01%0.09%0.04%0.04%0.30%0.13%
GBP0.03%-0.01%0.06%0.04%0.03%0.30%0.12%
JPY-0.05%-0.09%-0.06%-0.01%-0.03%0.24%0.06%
CAD-0.01%-0.04%-0.04%0.01%-0.02%0.26%0.07%
AUD-0.00%-0.04%-0.03%0.03%0.02%0.27%0.09%
NZD-0.27%-0.30%-0.30%-0.24%-0.26%-0.27%-0.16%
CHF-0.09%-0.13%-0.12%-0.06%-0.07%-0.09%0.16%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 on fresh USD supply

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar retreats from 17-month highs as traders take profits off the table ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar draws support from reviving expectations of a November interest rate hike amid elevated global yields and inflation risks.


USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 as USD retreats ahead of NFP

USD/JPY is struggling for fresh impetus near 158.00, moving away from the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI and amid a broad US Dollar retreat. Traders reposition themselves ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold fades the earlier optimism; back below $4,200

Gold could not sustain the post-NFP bull run past the $4,200 mark per troy ounce, receding toward the $4,180 region at the end of the week. The precious metal’s inconclusive price action comes amid fresh selling pressure hurting the US Dollar as investors assess the latest NFP data.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP gains reinforce bullish outlook

Cryptocurrency prices are broadly recovering on Friday, led by Bitcoin moving above $86,000. Ethereum has reaffirmed its bullish outlook, rising above $2,700 while the immediate area at $2,800 caps upside. Meanwhile, Ripple hovers near $1.54.

Week ahead – Fed minutes in the spotlight amid bond market rout

Energy crisis and soaring bond yields to stay in driver’s seat in quiet week. Fed minutes eyed after drop in October rate hike bets. ISM services PMI and Treasury auctions to be watched too. Canadian employment, Japanese wages and ECB minutes also on tap.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.