British Pound declines as Fed hawkish rate holds boost US Dollar, BoE rate decision looms

GBP/USD softens to around 1.3345 in Thursday’s early European session.
Fed holds rates steady; three policymakers dissent in favor of a hike.
The BoE is likely to keep rates on hold at 3.75%, its level since December.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 1.3345 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the British Pound (GBP) amid hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) signals and escalating Middle East tensions. The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision will take center stage later on Thursday.

As widely expected, the Fed left the Federal Funds Rate in its current target range between 3.50% and 3.75% at its July policy meeting on Wednesday. However, the statement showed that three committee members voted for a 25-basis-point rate hike at this meeting. During the press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said that tightening in the market has done quite a bit of work for policymakers. He added that the committee will be quick to act if inflation pressures accelerate.

Renewed Middle East hostilities could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback against the GBP. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Washington would strike back at Iran after a recent attack that targeted a military base in Jordan.

The US military began launching strikes against Iran late Wednesday, retaliating against Iranian missile attacks on American forces in the region, per the Guardian. Iranian media said the US military hit the south-western Iranian city of Abadan as well as Qeshm Island.

The BoE is expected to keep the interest rates steady at 3.75% on Thursday as it weighs the impact of the US-Iran war that has ‌closed the Strait of Hormuz for the past five months and intensified inflation pressures.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank's signal back in March that previously expected cuts to borrowing costs were off the table due to the war is likely to keep inflation in check. Rate futures markets on Wednesday pointed to a quarter-point hike by November and another one by March 2027, according to Reuters.

Pound under pressure as Societe Generale flags downside risks for GBP/USD

Analysts at Societe Generale observe that cable has been "steady near 1.33" but retains a "lower bias on oil," with the bank warning that a "hawkish Fed rate decision could hasten return to below 1.32 and late June low." The commentary underscores lingering downside risks for GBP/USD as markets look ahead to upcoming central bank events.

BoE FAQs

What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound?

The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).

How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling?

When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound?

In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

GBP/USD retreats from weekly high vs firmer USD as focus shifts to BoE, US data

The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up to the weekly high and drifts lower during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around mid-1.3300s, down over 0.10% for the day, and, for now, seem to have stalled the recovery move from a nearly four-week low, touched on Tuesday.

EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.1450 ahead of German/ EU GDP

EUR/USD trades with mild losses around 1.1450 in the early European hours on Thursday. The US Dollar recovers ground on renewed Mideast hostilities, despite a cautious Fed hold. Traders now brace for preliminary readings of the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Germany, the Eurozone and the US.

Gold extends intraday rejection slide from $4,100

Gold extends its intraday rejection slide from the $4,100 mark and moves further away from a one-week high, touched the previous day. The US Dollar regains positive traction following Wednesday's post-FOMC decline and is seen as a key factor weighing on the commodity.

Mixed signals leave XRP and XLM at crossroads

Ripple and Stellar are trading at critical technical levels on Thursday. XRP has stabilized above the psychological $1.00 support, while XLM is testing support at $0.173. Traders should be cautious as mixed derivatives metrics keep the outlook uncertain for both altcoins. Derivatives data shows mixed sentiment among traders. CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for XRP reads 1.02 on Thursday.

Fed review: Reversing course (?)

At face value, the FOMC's 9-3 split decision hold was exactly in line with the expectations we laid out in our Fed preview - a divided hold, 22 July. We also named the three dissenters - Hammack, Logan and Kashkari - as the most likely hawks to support rapid tightening.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.