Brexit: Rest of the year will be characterised by high uncertainty and high tensions - Rabobank

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

"The EU and the UK reached an agreement on a draft deal on 13 November," note Rabobank analysts.

Key quotes

"The Irish conundrum has been solved by keeping the UK in a Customs Union with the EU and Northern Ireland aligned with parts of the EU Single Market legislation for goods. The UK could also stay longer in the transition period, something a Joint Committee in which both the EU and UK are represented will decide."

"The timing is positive news as it leaves more time than expected for getting the deal through the UK Parliament. However, given the diffuse and sometimes fluid positions on Brexit in the UK Parliament getting the deal approved will be very challenging."

"PM May could first have to overcome a possible leadership challenge. The rest of the year will be characterised by high uncertainty and high tensions. We consider that the deal can be ratified by 29 March 2019, but we also see the chances of a ‘hard Brexit’ almost as high as those of getting an orderly Brexit."

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

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