Brexit: Latest breakthrough no gamechanger for ‘no deal’ risk - ING

"The leaked draft of the UK-EU political declaration sent the pound soaring on Thursday morning, but what is still not clear is if this document will help secure the critical votes Prime Minister May needs to get her deal approved by Parliament," point out ING analysts.

Key quotes

"It’s fair to say that the draft Brexit withdrawal agreement that was announced last week hasn’t gone down too well domestically. Pro-Brexit Conservative MPs have been deeply sceptical about the possibility of the all-UK customs arrangement that forms part of the Irish backstop. While it doesn’t seem like this group of concerned MPs have the numbers so far to trigger a leadership challenge, they may well have enough backing to torpedo the deal when it is voted in Parliament."

"Meanwhile, the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) – whom the Conservative government relies on for its working majority in the House of Commons looks likely to reject the agreement too, citing concerns that the proposed backstop would create regulatory barriers between Northern Ireland and the British mainland."

"In short, it now looks increasingly likely that the government will be defeated when the deal is presented to the House of Commons (most likely in mid-December)."