Brent: Higher risk premium and retest of highs – Rabobank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Rabobank's Senior Energy Strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit revise their Brent outlook higher as Middle East disruptions tighten supply routes. They now see Brent at $107/bbl in Q4 2026 and $94/bbl in 2027, warning that extended outages to Saudi infrastructure and Red Sea tanker flows could push prices back toward this year’s $126 highs.

Brent lifted on Middle East shocks

"Brent crude oil is trading near $106/bbl and broke through the key $100 psychological level last week on September 9th."

"We expect Brent to trade in a volatile range between $70-75 as our targeted support points on the low end and $95-$100 as the upper bound. We see the key movers to depend on news: will there be more oil flows disrupted through Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandab strait, or will the diversionary terminals of Yanbu or Fujairah be attacked? If the answer ends up being YES, we expect $100+ crude to materialize again."

“Oil prices broke upward after attacks forced Saudi Arabia to close its 7 million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline, a critical route for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.”

"Yanbu inventories may sustain Saudi exports for around a week to the SUMED pipeline at Suez, but an extended pipeline outage could cause major supply disruption and push Brent even further up to retest the $126 highs for the year."

“We are raising our oil and refined products accordingly. We are forecasting Brent Q4 2026 ↑ to $107/bbl, 2027 ↑ to $94/bbl from $86/bbl. WTI Q4 2026 ↑ to $103/bbl, 2027 ↑ to $88/bbl from $82/bbl. We also increase NY Harbor HO Q4 2026 ↑ to $5.02/gal from $4.31/gal, 2027 ↑ to $4.25/gal from $3.74/gal. We revise ICE Gasoil Q4 2026 ↑ to $1425/mt, 2027 ↑ to $1220/mt.”

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