Brent: Elevated conflict risk supports higher path – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong revise their Brent Oil profile higher as the US–Iran conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and Oil flows near a standstill. They now expect Brent to trade around USD100/bbl through mid-2026 before easing towards USD70/bbl by early 2027, warning that persistent shipping paralysis could turn temporary disruptions into lasting supply losses.

Conflict-driven supply risks keep Brent high

"No clear path to de-escalation as the US–Iran conflict enters week three; limited vessel movement keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and oil flows at a near standstill."

"We revise Brent forecast higher, with prices staying elevated at around USD100/bbl through mid-year before easing towards USD70/bbl by early 2027."

"Persistent shipping paralysis is forcing Gulf output shut ins, raising the risk that short lived disruptions turn into durable supply losses."

"Mitigating measures still leave a sizable gap, with up to 10mb/d of offsets unable to fully counter a prolonged Strait shutdown."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

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