|

Breakout continuation

S&P 500 had good reason to rally after CPI Wednesday, but didn‘t keep the gains. Thursday‘s PPI brought arguably less satisfactory macro data, yet stocks rallied strongly – S&P 500 offered a deep hourly pullback candle two hours after the breakoit vs. a much shallower pullback candle in Nasdaq.

Friday though, the relative performance reversed, and tech attempt to continue higher was rejected, and tech underperformance followed, undershooting its Thursday pullback lows unlike the S&P 500.

Is that a cause for concern alongside DRAM and SMH being in less technically favorable position than IGV, which though suffered a chunky red candle Friday?

Another little oddity was the dollar daily weakness while yields rose – or was that tied perceived rising Mideast tensions, therefore just hedging before the weekend?

Where was the gold and silver upswing then? Only gold moved clearly higher, silver barely so – and incoming retail sales were a disappointment, pushing rate hike odds further to the background – any news dialing back rate hike odds that simultaneously doesn‘t smack of corporate profits erosion, is a welcome sign that should have made stocks rally instead, so let‘s dive into the subject of budding stock market upleg, whether that‘s cancelled or deferred.

Author

Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley

Monicakingsley

Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020.

More from Monica Kingsley
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD hits multi-week tops around 1.3560

GBP/USD gathers fresh steam and advances to new three-month peaks near the 1.3560 zone on Friday. Cable’s sharp move higher comes after three daily drops in a row and follows the increasing selling pressure hurting the Greenback.

EUR/USD pops to fresh two-month highs, targets 1.1600

EUR/USD advances markedly, revisiting the upper 1.1500s for the first time since mid-June. The pair’s sharp uptick comes on the back of a strong retracement in the US Dollar amid BoJ intervention chatter and despite steady uncertainty in the Middle East.

Gold eyes $4,400 as receding Fed hike bets undermine USD

Gold is looking to build on Friday's bounce from the $4,300 neighborhood as reduced bets for an immediate Fed rate hike keep US Dollar bulls on the defensive and support the non-yielding bullion. However, the US-Iran standoff could limit deeper USD losses, warranting caution before positioning for the resumption of the XAU/USD pair's recent uptrend to its highest level since June 5.

Week ahead: Summer lull could be tested by geopolitics and central bank expectations
It has been a relatively monotonous week, with the US dollar desperately trying to recover from last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls-induced losses, the main equity indices trading mostly sideways amidst a quiet earnings calendar, and sovereign bond yields reminding everyone of their pivotal role in the current financial system. These market moves are partly connected to the Middle East developments.
 Weekly focus: Some relief in US inflation concerns

Actual inflation data for July came out as expected with a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and 0.2% excluding food and energy. Annual headline inflation remains too high at 3.4% and means that wage earners are experiencing stagnating spending power at best, and core inflation is a bit higher than the inflation target of two percent would suggest.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?
Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.