Bitcoin, facing headwinds, may not have enough strength

Alexander Kuptsikevich FxPro

Market overview

The crypto market cap has risen 2% over the past 24 hours, to $2.43T, close to the upper limit of last month's range and slightly below last week's mid-range. We continue to note the positive momentum in cryptocurrencies, in contrast to the pressure on the Nasdaq 100 and gold prices. However, we believe this divergence is short-term and will only continue until traditional markets begin to collapse. At the same time, the markets are now testing key technical support levels, forcing cryptocurrency traders to stay on guard.

Bitcoin has exceeded $71.5K, approaching its 50-day moving average. External factors are acting as a headwind, including rising oil and dollar prices, as well as the Nasdaq100 and S&P 500 indices falling to their 200-day lows. We doubt Bitcoin will have the strength to withstand the wind for long, and internal resistance may soon become a significant obstacle to growth.

News background

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz expects Bitcoin to trade between $60K and $80K this year. According to him, in recent weeks, it is not large hedge funds that have played a key role in the crypto market, but private investors, who are driving the main demand for the first cryptocurrency.

Options market participants are betting that Bitcoin will rise to $80K by the beginning of summer. According to Derive estimates, the probability of BTC rising above $80K by the end of June is 35%. However, there are also large bearish bets in the market.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone is confident that the bearish trend for Bitcoin is not over and again expects the price to fall to $10K, recommending using local rebounds to lock in profits.

Blockchain developer activity has declined by 75% over the year due to the outflow of specialists to the artificial intelligence industry, according to Artemis. The number of active developers has fallen by 56% to approximately 4,600 people.

Author

Alexander Kuptsikevich

FxPro

Alexander Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, has been with the company since its foundation. From time to time, he gives commentaries on radio and television. He publishes in major economic and socio-political media.

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