Australian job: Impact leans towards AUD upside rather than downside – TDS

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

In its preview of the Australian labour market report, analysts at TD Securities (TDS) highlights the impact of this report on the Australian dollar.

Key Quotes:

“A weak employment report poses some risks to what looks like a nice, short-term value trade in AUDUSD.

We believe that AUDUSD is trading at a roughly 4-sigma discount, reflecting the fallout of the US-China trade wars, the China growth slowdown, alongside various local risks.

Our employment forecasts is a near 3-standard deviation miss against consensus. Historically, a move of that magnitude has weakened AUDUSD around 0.6% in the first five minutes of trading over the past two years.

That said, like most of the G10 employment reports, it is noisy with the usual gap of +45k between the max and the min expectation. We also note that the historical data shows that the impact to this report leans towards AUD upside rather than the downside.”

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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