Australian Dollar trades lower as RBA minutes draw attention
- Aussie mildly declined to 0.6250 on Monday trading on a tight range.
- Market eyes upcoming RBA minutes for policy clues.
- Any RBA dovish hint could push the pair even lower.
The Australian Dollar trades in a tight range around 0.6250 as investors look ahead to Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes. Markets remain focused on whether the central bank will confirm a dovish bias after its December hold. Meanwhile, soft economic data and global uncertainties keep the Aussie under modest selling pressure.
Daily digest market movers: Aussie steady with RBA minutes in focus
- The AUD/USD pair remains range-bound on Monday following the RBA’s decision to keep the Official Cash Rate at 4.35% in December.
- Speculation about a 25 basis points rate cut in February persists, with market odds at 65% and a full pricing in by April.
- Investors will monitor the RBA officials' stances and their confidence on the progress of inflation.
- Any dovish hint which makes investors bet on a cut in Q1 of 2025 might significantly hurt the Aussie.
- Previous statements hinted at rate hikes but omitted "ruling anything in or out".
- RBA expressed optimism, stating inflation is "moving sustainably towards target," signaling progress toward their goals.
- Markets interpreted the RBA's tone as dovish despite Governor Bullock's emphasis on data-driven February rate decisions.
AUD/USD technical outlook: Aussie pauses after two-day winning streak
The AUD/USD mildly declined to 0.6245 on Monday, snapping its brief recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 30, dipping further into near-oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints flat red bars, suggesting waning bearish momentum. Although the pair’s selling traction seems limited, any upside may hinge on the RBA minutes clarifying the likelihood of a February rate cut.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Author
Patricio Martín
FXStreet
Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.
