Australian Dollar strengthens on risk-on mood
- AUD/USD advances despite the fact that markets are ruling out any interest rate action on Tuesday.
- US Dollar declines as a US-Iran peace deal faded safe-haven demand, easing fears of inflation and higher interest rates.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows December Fed rate hike odds falling to nearly 27% after the peace deal.
AUD/USD gains around 0.5% after registering minor losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7080 during the Asian hours on Monday. However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) could struggle against the US Dollar (USD) as markets are ruling out a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate move at Tuesday's June meeting and have lowered bets for an August hike. All eyes now turn to the May CPI data on June 24, which will be critical for policymakers looking for signs of persistent inflation to justify future policy tightening.
The AUD/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines on fading safe-haven demand following reports that the United States (US) and Iran reached a deal to end their conflict, easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates.
Washington and Tehran said on Sunday that they have reached an agreement that will take effect on Friday. US President Donald Trump stated that the US is lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after the agreement is signed.
The United Kingdom (UK), France, Germany and Italy said that the countries were prepared to lift sanctions on Iran in response to steps on its nuclear program after the US and Iran reached a deal to end their war.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the markets are pricing in nearly a 27% probability of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in December this year after the peace deal, down from 40% a week ago.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
