Australian Dollar: Softer inflation tempers rate hike odds – MUFG

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Australian Dollar, a beneficiary of AI-related demand, has weakened after another softer-than-expected Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Core inflation undershot the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) May forecasts, easing pressure for further tightening. Hardman highlights that this lower starting point for inflation reduces the urgency for additional RBA hikes, with market-implied odds for one final move later in 2026 now close to 50:50.

Australian CPI surprise weighs on AUD

"The Australian dollar has also been one of the beneficiaries from increased demand related to the AI buildout."

"The Australian dollar has weakened overnight although it was mainly triggered by the release of another softer than expected inflation report from Australia that has dampened expectations for further RBA rate hikes."

"Core inflation surprised to the downside for the second consecutive quarter in Q2."

"The trimmed mean measure of core inflation increased by 0.8%Q/Q and by an annual rate of 3.6%."

"The softer than expected print gives RBA policymakers a better starting point for their updated economic forecasts which helps to ease pressure to hike rates further even as inflation remains above target."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD jumps to 0.7050, fresh one-month top after hot Australian CPI

AUD/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day on Wednesday, rising to a fresh high since September 23 during the Asian session. A hot Australian CPI print reaffirmed bets for an imminent RBA rate hike in November and boosted the Australian Dollar. Meanwhile, the US Dollar pauses after a three-day rally to a near two-week high ahead of the crucial FOMC rate decision, lending additional support to the currency pair.

USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day, recovering further from a one-month low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes weigh on the Japanese Yen, and the US Dollar advances to a nearly two-week high, supporting the currency pair.

Gold extends pullback from weekly top, further below $4,050 as focus remains on FOMC

Gold extends its retracement slide from the weekly high touched during the Asian session, falling further below $4,050 heading into the European session and ahead of the key central bank event. The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its policy decision later today and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Hence, the focus will be on the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments during the post-meeting press conference.

Zcash's bullish momentum mounts on steady ETF inflows, retail confidence

Zcash extends steady recovery above $1,300 on Wednesday, approaching a key resistance near $1,373. Grayscale’s ZEC-focused Exchange-Traded Fund sees persistent buying pressure, with six straight days of inflows, including more than $3 million on Tuesday.

FOMC outlook: Why keeping rates unchanged might not be enough

Tomorrow's FOMC meeting could be quite interesting, even if the Federal Reserve decides to leave interest rates unchanged. According to the latest market expectations, there is currently a 92.8% probability that rates will remain at 3.75–4.00%, while the probability of another 25 basis point increase stands at just 7.2%.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.