Australian Dollar inches lower as China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI falls in July

AUD/USD remains subdued following disappointing Chinese PMI data, as manufacturing contracted to 49.2 in July, missing expectations.
The Australian Dollar faces pressure as soft Q2 inflation virtually ruled out an August RBA rate hike.
The US Dollar gains despite easing risk aversion driven by recent diplomatic developments.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

AUD/USD inches lower after registering over 1% gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7020 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair remains subdued following the release of disappointing Chinese Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data.

China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory at 49.2 in July, down from 50.3 prior and below market estimates of 50.0. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.0 against expectations of a 50.0 reading, underscoring ongoing weakness in Australia's largest trading partner.

Aussie inflation cools further, easing pressure on the RBA

Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight that the latest data showed a further easing in price pressures, with "annual inflation moderated from +4.0% to +3.8% yoy." They note that this incremental slowdown in headline inflation reinforces the perception that underlying price momentum is gradually cooling, helping to temper expectations for additional near-term tightening by the RBA and contributing to a softer tone in the Aussie Dollar.

The US Dollar (USD) holds firm despite an easing of global risk aversion brought on by positive diplomatic developments. Tensions in the Middle East have shown signs of cooling as negotiations between the US and Iran progress toward restoring stability in the Strait of Hormuz.

Further lifting market sentiment, US President Donald Trump announced a historic agreement aimed at the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a deal reportedly confirmed by senior Hamas officials.

Fed pause extends as FOMC split underscores policy debate

Strategists at HSBC highlight that the US Federal Reserve "left interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, in line with expectations," but stress that the "9-3 vote revealed a lively debate within the FOMC," underscoring the extent of internal divergence over the appropriate policy path.

Economic Indicator

NBS Manufacturing PMI

The NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at manufacturing companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Renminbi (CNY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for CNY.

Why it matters to traders?

The monthly manufacturing PMI is released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) on the last day of every month. The official PMI is released before the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which makes it even more of a leading indicator, highlighting the health of the manufacturing sector, considered as the backbone of the Chinese economy. The data is of high relevance for the financial markets throughout several asset classes, given China’s influence on the global economy.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

GBP/USD advaces beyond 1.3450 after BoE decision, US Q2 GDP

GBP/USD gains positive momentum on Thursday, surpassing 1.3450 and trading at fresh multi-week highs. The Bank of England decided to maintain the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%. The MPC voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold, with the 3 dissenters favoring a rate hike. US Q2 GDP missing expectations helped the pair advance, while renewed US Dollar weakness across the FX board pushed the pair further up ahead of the monthly close.

EUR/USD confortable around 1.1530, highest in six weeks

The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1530 in the American session on Thursday, reaching fresh six-week highs. The US Dollar is in sell-off mode, with multiple factors weighing on the American currency. Not only did the Federal Reserve vote divided to keep rates on hold on Wednesday, creating doubts about a September hike, but US Q2 GDP missed expectations. A suspected JPY intervention adds pressure on the Greenback.

Gold: Looks to snap four-month losing streak but sellers refuse to give up

Gold fails to hold above $4,100 once again as sellers return early Friday. The US Dollar rebounds on fresh US-Iran tensions and month-end profit-taking. Gold closed above $4,100 on Thursday, but the daily RSI remains below 50.

Why is IDR near historic lows despite Bank Indonesia's 5.75% rate?

The Indonesian Rupiah has faced persistent depreciation pressures against the US Dollar during the first half of 2026, with the USD/IDR pair stabilizing around the 18,100–18,200 range at the time of writing after reaching a record high at 18,247 on June 8, marking the Rupiah's weakest level on record against the Greenback.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.