Australian Dollar climbs as Iran deal hopes, weak US GDP sink USD
- US-Iran ceasefire hopes pressure the US Dollar and boost risk appetite.
- Core PCE stays hot, keeping Fed hike bets alive.
- Australian household spending slump limits upside for the Aussie.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances some 0.25% against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday amid reports that Iran and the US reached a deal, as economic data in the US showed the economy grew at a slower pace than projected. At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades at 0.7158, after bouncing off daily lows of 0.7097.
AUD/USD rebounds as risk appetite improves after Axios ceasefire report
The US Dollar is falling on Axios news that the US and Iranian negotiators have agreed to a 60-day memorandum of understanding aimed at extending the ceasefire and opening talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Nevertheless, the agreement still awaits final approval from President Donald Trump and senior leadership on both sides.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's performance against its peers, is down 0.25% to 98.97 amid improved risk appetite.
US inflation in April held above the 3% threshold, with the Core PCE Price Index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—rising to 3.3% YoY from 3.2%, driven by elevated energy prices tied to the US-Iran war. Headline figures expanded by 3.8% YoY as expected, up from March’s 3.5%.
The US economy grew lower than expected in Q1 2026, with GDP surging just 1.6%, down from 2% in the second estimate, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Labor Department also reported that Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215K in the week ending May 23, above expectations of 211K.
Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary remained mixed. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned that a rate hike could be needed if inflation fails to cool. At the same time, New York Fed President John Williams said policy is appropriately positioned given the outlook.
In Australia, household spending fell 1.1% in April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), below economists' estimates of a 0.4% contraction.
Ahead, the Aussie’s schedule is absent. In the US, traders await speeches by Federal Reserve officials ahead of entering their blackout period.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7168. The pair holds a modest bullish bias as it sits above the latest simple moving average from the triple set around 0.7104 and respects the rising trend-line support zone projected near 0.7133. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers slightly above the midline near 51, hinting at steady but not overstretched upside momentum as price consolidates around the day’s opening pivot at 0.7168.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the intraday pivot and prior open around 0.7168, with the clustered rising trend-line breaks near 0.7133 reinforcing a broader demand band ahead of the simple moving average support by 0.7104. A deeper slide could expose the former downward trend-line break level near 0.6454 as a more distant structural floor. On the topside, bulls would need to clear successive resistance defined by the higher upward trend-line break projections at 0.7777 and 0.8182 to reclaim a more assertive medium-term uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.26% | -0.14% | -0.22% | -0.36% | -0.36% | -0.54% | -0.43% | |
| EUR | 0.26% | 0.11% | 0.02% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.26% | -0.17% | |
| GBP | 0.14% | -0.11% | -0.09% | -0.22% | -0.21% | -0.37% | -0.30% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | -0.02% | 0.09% | -0.15% | -0.14% | -0.33% | -0.21% | |
| CAD | 0.36% | 0.10% | 0.22% | 0.15% | 0.00% | -0.17% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.36% | 0.10% | 0.21% | 0.14% | -0.01% | -0.16% | -0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.54% | 0.26% | 0.37% | 0.33% | 0.17% | 0.16% | 0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.43% | 0.17% | 0.30% | 0.21% | 0.08% | 0.08% | -0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
