AUD/USD remains confined in a range above mid-0.6300s, seems vulnerable near YTD low

The AUD/USD pair continues with its struggle to register any meaningful recovery and languishes near its lowest level since November 2022 for the third straight day on Friday. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above mid-0.6300s through the Asian session, though the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of the recent well-established downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to be undermined by concerns about the worsening economic conditions in China, US-China trade tensions and expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is done raising interest rates. In fact, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said earlier this week that she doesn't expect any changes to the US tariffs imposed on China by the Trump administration until the completion of the ongoing review by the US Treasury. Furthermore, the RBA's on-hold decision for the third straight meeting on Tuesday and lack of fresh hawkish signals convinced investors that the central bank will maintain the status quo until the end of this year.

In contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates higher. Moreover, the incoming stronger-than-expected US macro data, including the Weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday, reaffirmed market bets for one more 25 lift-off in 2023. This, in turn, allows the US Dollar (USD) to stand tall just below its highest level since March 9 and suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside. Hence, the three-day-old rangebound price action might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. Furthermore, the lack of any meaningful buying interest warrants some caution before confirming that spot prices have bottomed out in the near term.

Technical levels to watch