AUD/USD Price Forecasts: Aussie approaches 0.6950 with bullish momentum building up
- AUD/USD bounces up to levels near 0.6950, on track for a 0.6% weekly appreciation.
- Weaker-than-expected job creation in the US has dampened hopes of Fed tightening and is weighing on the US Dollar.
- Aussie's recovery seems corrective so far, as the broader structure remains bearish.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) appreciates for the second consecutive day against a weaker US Dollar (USD) on Friday, still weighed by Thursday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls’ disappointment. The pair approaches the 0.6950 level at the time of writing, after bouncing from 0.6865 lows, on track for a 0.6% weekly rally after dropping more than 2% over the previous two weeks, and with momentum indicators turning bullish.
The US Dollar lost momentum on Thursday, after June’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures showed a 57K increase in net jobs, about half of the 110K expected, and cooled hopes of immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening. Bets for a July hike have dropped to 18% from nearly 30% one day before, while the odds for a hike in September declined to 52% from 65% before the data release, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
In Australia, data from the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index has been supportive, with activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors expanding unexpectedly in June. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 against expectations of a steady 49.8 reading and Services activity improved to 50.5 instead of remaining unchanged at 49.9 as the market consensus had anticipated.
Technical Analysis: In a bullish correction from oversold levels
AUD/USD is in a bullish corrective reaction after reaching extremely oversold levels in late June. Momentum indicators have turned positive, with the four--hour Relative Strength Index (14) pushing into the low-60s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram showing growing green bars. From a wider perspective, however, the bearish structure remains in place.
Bulls are likely to meet some resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous two weeks' selloff, at 0.6950, followed by the area between the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements, at 0.6976 and 0.7000, respectively, where the June 11, 17, 18 and 19 lows lie.
On the downside, the session low at 0.6935 and Thursday's low, at the 0.6885 area, are likely to hold bulls ahead of the key support area at Junes trading floor in the mentioned 0.6865 level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.22% | -0.21% | -0.06% | -0.14% | -0.30% | -0.44% | -0.25% | |
| EUR | 0.22% | 0.00% | 0.17% | 0.07% | -0.13% | -0.23% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.21% | -0.01% | 0.13% | 0.06% | -0.15% | -0.23% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | -0.17% | -0.13% | -0.06% | -0.28% | -0.39% | -0.17% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | -0.07% | -0.06% | 0.06% | -0.22% | -0.31% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.30% | 0.13% | 0.15% | 0.28% | 0.22% | -0.09% | 0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.44% | 0.23% | 0.23% | 0.39% | 0.31% | 0.09% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | 0.25% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.17% | 0.10% | -0.11% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
