AUD/USD Price Forecast: Looks to build on momentum above mid-0.7100s amid bullish setup
- AUD/USD rebounds from the Asian session low amid a modest USD pullback from a one-week high.
- The divergent Fed-RBA policy expectations counter Hormuz risks and offer support to spot prices.
- The technical setup favors bullish traders and backs the case for a further near-term appreciation.
The AUD/USD pair attracts some dip-buying following a bearish gap opening to the 0.7115 region on Monday and climbs back above mid-0.7100s during the Asian session. Spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled a modest pullback from the highest level since June 2022, around the 0.7220 area, touched on Friday.
The US Dollar (USD) kicks off the new week on a positive note amid renewed US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, which exerted some downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair at the start of a new week. However, diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) fail to assist the USD in capitalizing on the move. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish outlook acts as a tailwind for the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent strong move up from the vicinity of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), or the monthly swing low, and last week's breakout through the 0.7115 horizontal barrier, was seen as a key trigger for the AUD/USD bulls. The emergence of fresh buying near the said resistance breakpoint, now turned support, validates the near-term positive outlook and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside.
Moreover, momentum indicators are also supportive. In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory and above its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 62 suggests firm buying interest without yet signaling overbought conditions. Hence, some follow-through strength beyond the 0.7200 round figure, back towards retesting the year-to-date high near the 0.7220-0.7225 region, looks like a distinct possibility.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 0.7115 region, which underpins the broader advance and might continue to protect the immediate downside. A subsequent corrective slide below the 0.7100 mark would be expected to attract dip-buyers amid the constructive structure above the key 100-day SMA support near the 0.6900 mark, reinforced by positive MACD and a strong RSI.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this month. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.76% | -2.04% | 0.02% | -1.58% | -3.59% | -2.27% | -2.14% | |
| EUR | 1.76% | -0.30% | 1.85% | 0.17% | -1.89% | -0.57% | -0.39% | |
| GBP | 2.04% | 0.30% | 2.12% | 0.46% | -1.58% | -0.25% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -1.85% | -2.12% | -1.57% | -3.66% | -2.38% | -2.17% | |
| CAD | 1.58% | -0.17% | -0.46% | 1.57% | -2.11% | -0.81% | -0.57% | |
| AUD | 3.59% | 1.89% | 1.58% | 3.66% | 2.11% | 1.33% | 1.50% | |
| NZD | 2.27% | 0.57% | 0.25% | 2.38% | 0.81% | -1.33% | 0.16% | |
| CHF | 2.14% | 0.39% | 0.11% | 2.17% | 0.57% | -1.50% | -0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
