AUD/USD Price Forecast: Gains ground below 0.7000 on hawkish RBA bets

AUD/USD jumps higher to near 0.7015 as the Australian Dollar outperforms on firm hawkish RBA bets.
The RBA is expected to deliver back-to-back interest rate hikes on Tuesday.
Investors expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair trades 0.5% higher to near 0.7015 during the early European trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair rebounds after a sharp two-day sell-off as the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its major currency peers on the expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates in the monetary policy meeting on Tuesday.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.09%	-0.16%	-0.22%	0.02%	-0.49%	-0.61%	-0.02%
EUR	0.09%		0.02%	-0.13%	0.12%	-0.39%	-0.39%	0.07%
GBP	0.16%	-0.02%		-0.06%	0.10%	-0.41%	-0.44%	0.10%
JPY	0.22%	0.13%	0.06%		0.26%	-0.27%	-0.22%	0.21%
CAD	-0.02%	-0.12%	-0.10%	-0.26%		-0.51%	-0.54%	-0.02%
AUD	0.49%	0.39%	0.41%	0.27%	0.51%		-0.02%	0.58%
NZD	0.61%	0.39%	0.44%	0.22%	0.54%	0.02%		0.54%
CHF	0.02%	-0.07%	-0.10%	-0.21%	0.02%	-0.58%	-0.54%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

The RBA is anticipated to raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.1% as surging oil prices have boosted inflation expectations across the world. In the last policy meeting in February, the RBA also raised its OCR by 25 bps to 3.85% and kept the door open for further interest rate hikes, citing upside inflation risks.

Oil prices have shot up in the past few weeks due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid conflicts in the Middle East, which involve the United States (US), Israel, and Iran.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) retraces slightly after a stalwart rally ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the current range of 3.50%-3.75%.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades higher to near 0.7015 as of writing. The near-term bias is neutral as spot remains close to the flattened 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 0.7053.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 range after failing to hold the 60.00-80.00 zone, suggesting that the momentum has cooled from prior overbought readings and now reflects a more balanced, range-bound backdrop.

Initial resistance emerges at Friday's high around 0.7100, where recent intraday highs cluster just below last week’s 0.7120–0.7150 cap. A daily close above that band would reopen the path toward the mid-0.72s. On the downside, the March 3 low of 0.6944 is the first support, followed by the February 6 low around 0.6900. A sustained move beneath the latter would strengthen the odds of a deeper corrective phase toward the 0.6770-0.6800 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

RBA Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD.

USD/JPY stays below 160.50 as markets assess BoJ decision

USD/JPY fluctuates in a relatively narrow range above 160.00 on Tuesday as markets assess the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to raise the policy rate by 25 at the June meeting. Meanwhile, investors keep a close eye on news coming out of the Middle East, while preparing for the critical Fed meeting.

AUD/USD struggles for direction, still below 0.7100

AUD/USD looks to extend Monday’s recovery, although a challenge to the 0.7100 barrier remains elusive ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The Aussie Dollar was unable to take advantage of the RBA's relatively cautious message, which included keeping its OCR unchanged at 4.35% and leaving the possibility of further tightening in the future.

Gold: $4,000 or $4,500? The Fed may decide Gold’s next big move

Gold now surrenders part of its initial advance and recedes to the vicinity of the $4,350 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The early enthusiasm sparked by the US-Iran peace deal has faded somewhat, prompting investors to adopt a more prudent stance as they await further details of the agreement and key guidance from the Fed.

XRP pulls back as subdued ETF inflows, layered resistance cap upside

Ripple (XRP) remains elevated above $1.23 at the time of writing on Tuesday, struggling amid a capped upside. Despite an improved overall market sentiment driven by news of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran to end the war in the Middle East, capital inflows remain notably subdued.

1% rate, 160 Yen: Why Japan’s historic hike changed little

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) pushed its short-term policy rate to 1% on Tuesday, the highest setting since 1995 and a 31-year milestone in a normalization cycle barely two years old. It is the kind of number that should mark a turning point for the Yen, and it did almost nothing.

Why a hawkish RBA is no longer enough to lift the Australian Dollar

The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered more than what markets expected: a hawkish hold that should have supported the Aussie. But markets widely ignored it, focusing instead on slowing economic growth and proving that central bank messaging alone isn’t always enough to drive currencies.