Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hits fresh weekly highs beyond the top of a triangle pattern

Gold accelerates its recovery with bulls attempting to break a triangle pattern at the $4,125 area.
Soft US data and cooling hopes of Fed rate hikes are hurting the US Dollar on Wednesday
XAU/USD bulls are targeting the key resistance area around $4,220.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

Gold (XAU/USD) has accelerated its recovery on Wednesday, favoured by a softer US Dollar as lower Oil prices and downbeat US macroeconomic data cooled market expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes on Tuesday. This has enticed Gold buyers to push the precious metal above the top of a triangle pattern, at the $4,125 area, in a move that is still to be confirmed.

Bullion is drawing support from lower US Treasury yields, following softer-than-expected US Job Openings and Factory Orders figures released on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the decline in Oil prices, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading $10 below last week's highs, has eased concerns about the inflationary impact of energy prices. In this context, investors have cut back bets of a Fed rate hike in September to 58% from 67% on Tuesday, according to data by the CME’s Fed Watch Tool.

Technical Analysis: Gold needs to break $4,220 to confirm a deeper correction

XAU/USD trades at $4,161, holding a constructive near-term bias after reaching one-week highs above the top of a descending triangle. Momentum indicators in 4-hour charts endorse the positive view, with the Relative Strength Index (14) around 55 hinting at a building bullish while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slightly above zero strengthens the case for a moderate upside bias.

Bulls, however, will have to clear the horizontal barrier around $4,220 (June 22 highs) to confirm a bullish reversal and set sail for the mid-June highs, at $4,380.

A bearish reaction, on the other hand, is likely to find support at the $4,000 psychological level, although the key support area lies at the $3,945 area, the bottom of the mentioned triangle. A confirmation below here negates the bullish view and brings the late October 2025 lows, at $3,886, into play.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Author

Guillermo Alcala

FXStreet

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

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