AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aussie eases from 12-week highs with bulls still in command
- AUD/USD ticks down from 0.7180 highs but remains within the upper range of the 0.7100s.
- Market expectations of further RBA tightening are keeping the Aussie buoyed.
Technical indicators hint at an overextended rally and suggest the possibility of a deeper pullback.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) ticks lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, but maintains its broader bullish tone, with the AUD/USD pair trading at 0.7164, a few pips shy of the 12-week high of 0.7180 hit last Friday. A mild risk-averse market mood is weighing on the Aussie, but the US Treasury’s plan to repurchase long-term securities keeps weighing on USD bulls.
Beyond that, economists at Wells Fargo see the Aussie supported as investors await next week's Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) to confirm whether “ the inflation relief seen in June can be sustained.”
Wells Fargo experts forecast “headline inflation to rise 1.0% in July, leading the year-over-year rate down to 3.4%, while trimmed mean inflation remains at 3.6% year over year.” Against that backdrop, “a September or Q4 rate hike remains in play if inflation remains elevated and demand conditions continue to prove resilient,” say the bank strategists in a note.
Technical Analysis: A moderate bearish correction looks likely
AUD/USD trades at 0.7165, holding a bullish near-term bias yet with technical indicators showing signs of exhaustion. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) highlights a bearish divergence as it pulls back from oversold levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned lower and attempts to cross the Signal line, which is considered a bearish sign.
Bears are likely to be challenged at a previous resistance area near 0.7130 (August 17, 20 highs) ahead of the August 19 low, just below 0.7070. On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 0.7200 area, which capped gains in late May and early June. Above here, the next target is the year-to-date high, near 0.7280.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.53% | 0.15% | 0.20% | 0.19% | |
| EUR | -0.14% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.39% | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | -0.01% | 0.02% | 0.40% | 0.01% | 0.12% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.44% | -0.07% | 0.06% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.53% | -0.39% | -0.40% | -0.44% | -0.46% | -0.26% | -0.34% | |
| AUD | -0.15% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.07% | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.20% | -0.12% | -0.12% | -0.06% | 0.26% | -0.11% | -0.06% | |
| CHF | -0.19% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.34% | -0.06% | 0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
