AUD/USD: near term outlook is neutral - Commerzbank

Ross J Burland FXStreet

Analysts at Commerzbank offered their technical analyses on AUD/USD.

Key Quotes:

"AUD/USD’s near term outlook is neutral. AUD/USD has rapidly recovered from its April low at 0.7440 to the 200-day moving average and the three-month resistance line at 0.7553. Around it, the cross may stall today. Should this not be the case we would have to allow for the mid- and late April highs and the 55 day moving average at 0.7592/0.7610 to be reached.

While remaining below the latter level we will retain an overall bearish bias. The April low at 0.7440 is the breakdown point to the 2016-2017 uptrend at 0.7279. Longer term outlook is negative: The repeated failure in the 0.7750/0.7836 region turns the market from the topside of a converging range and leaves it heading to the base of the range offered by the 2016-2017 support line at 0.7279."

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

AUD/USD falls to near 0.7100 after slipping below 50-day EMA

AUD/USD depreciates after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair consolidating sideways within a rectangle pattern, as neither bulls nor bears gain control. The AUD/USD pair is holding a slight bearish tone however as it sits beneath both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs.

Japanese Yen edges up but remains close to the 160.00 intervention threshold

The Japanese Yen edges up against the US Dollar on Friday, but the USD/JPY pair remains above 159.90 at the time of writing, unable to put a significant distance from the 160.00 level, considered the limit of tolerable JPY weakness for Japanese authorities.

Gold returns to the red, awaits US NFP

Gold price is looking to test the weekly lows, while in the red near $4,450 in the early European session on Friday. The precious metal remains vulnerable amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal and the US May employment report later on Friday.

Arthur Hayes' “Holy Trinity” is dead: Exits Zcash after Orchard Pool exploit

Arthur Hayes has entirely dumped his “Holy Trinity” holdings by offloading his Zcash holdings on Friday. The privacy coin is down 13% so far on Friday, extending Thursday’s 26% decline after an Orchard Shielded Pool audit revealed a critical vulnerability that allowed the undetectable minting of fake coins. Hayes continues to hold Worldcoin ahead of the upcoming SpaceX Initial Public Offering, on the chance of a “high-beta proxy” rally.

Nonfarm Payrolls set to show stable labor market in May as markets digest Fed hawkish shift

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Nonfarm Payrolls data for May on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 85K following the surprisingly strong 185K and 115K increases recorded in March and April, respectively.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.