AUD: Policy divergence underpins outperformance – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the Australian Dollar recovered after the RBA’s 5–4 split decision to deliver a second consecutive 25bp hike to 4.10%, with Governor Bullock’s remarks seen as hawkish. They maintain a call for another 25bp hike to 4.35% in May and expect continued AUD outperformance versus NZD, CAD and GBP, helped by Australia’s net energy exporter status.

RBA hawkish stance supports Australian Dollar

"The AUD recovered after initial volatility following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 5–4 split decision to deliver a second consecutive 25bp hike to 4.10%."

"Markets interpreted Governor Bullock’s press conference as hawkish, especially her clarification that dissenting votes reflected timing preferences—some members favoured waiting until May—rather than disagreement over the policy path."

"Bullock highlighted rising inflation expectation risks, with domestic price pressures compounded by the surge in oil prices driven by Middle East tensions."

"We maintain our call for another 25bp hike to 4.35% in May."

"As a net energy exporter, Australia stands to benefit indirectly from higher oil prices, leaving the AUD better positioned than many. We expect continued AUD outperformance, particularly against risk‑sensitive currencies such as the NZD, CAD and GBP."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

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