AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Clings to gains below 97.00 as downtrend remains
- AUD/JPY forms a 'shooting star' pattern, signaling potential for further downside if 96.15 is breached.
- Key support levels include 96.00 and 95.00, with deeper losses targeting the Tenkan-Sen at 94.43.
- If buyers reclaim 97.85, resistance lies at 98.00, with further gains challenging 98.74.
The AUD/JPY advances during the day yet retreats after hitting a daily high of 97.85 and sitting below 97.00. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 96.97 and posts gains of 0.68%.
AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The AUD/JPY downtrend remains in play despite the ongoing leg-up that saw the Aussie strengthen above the 97.00 figure. Momentum favors sellers, though in the short term, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is aiming below its neutral line, indicating buyers are stepping in.
Nevertheless, the August 12 price action formed a ‘shooting star’, usually a bearish candle followed by a daily close below the low of 96.15, which could pave the way for further losses.
In that outcome, the AUD/JPY first support would be the 96.00 psychological mark, ahead of the 95.00 figure. Further losses lie beneath the Tenkan Sen at 94.43.
Conversely, if AUD/JPY climbs past 97.85, buyers could challenge the 98.00 mark. Further gains are seen above the confluence of the Kijun-Sen and Senkou Span B at 98.74.
AUD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
