Asian FX: Geopolitics drives setback and two-way trade – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that Asian FX will likely unwind Friday’s rally after Iran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz. High‑beta KRW is seen leading the pullback, while TWD, INR, THB and PHP also soften on Oil sensitivity. Lower‑beta CNH and SGD may be less volatile but remain under pressure, with two‑way trading favoured as ceasefire negotiations evolve.

High beta to lead regional pullback

"Asian FX are likely to retrace late Friday’s gains while USD should catch a safe-haven bid amid twist in geopolitical developments into the weekend."

"Amongst the Asian FX, high-beta KRW that had benefited from the earlier positive development should see a bigger pullback."

"Most Asian FX, including TWD, INR, THB and PHP should also trade on a softer footing given their sensitivity to oil prices and risk sentiment."

"On relative terms, lower beta FX, including CNH and SGD may trade less volatile but likely still under pressure."

"This underscores the fluidity of geopolitical developments and continues to argue for 2-way trades."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)