|

A section of US treasury yield curve inverts for first time since 2007

A widely-followed section of the US Treasury yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2007, telling investors the Fed may cut rates to counter the slowdown in the economy. 

The spread between the US 10-year and three-month treasury yield turned negative on Friday and is currently seen at -0.02, the lowest since 2007. 

The inverted yield curve is widely considered an advance indicator of recession. That said, the most important section of the US yield curve - the spread between the 10-year and two-year yield - is yet to invert. As of writing, the spread between the two is 12 basis points. 

Author

Omkar Godbole

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

More from Omkar Godbole
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD holds above 1.3350 with the 200-day SMA capping gains

The British Pound appreciates against the US Dollar on Tuesday to trim previous losses and return to the 1.3375 area, aiming to retest resistance at the key 200-day Simple Moving Average. This is a popular indicator, which lies a few pips below 1.3400 and has been capping Pound’s recovery over the last two weeks.

EUR/USD surrenders some gains, back to 1.1440

EUR/USD now gives away part of the earlier advance and recedes toward thre 1.1440 zone on Tuesday. The pair’s firm uptick comes in response to the marked sell-off in the US Dollar, which has intensified after US inflation figures disappointed expectations in June and investors has assessed Chair Warsh’s testimony.

Gold battles to recover the $4,100 mark

Gold reverses the recent weakness and reclaims the area beyond the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The precious metal’s recovery picks up pace and approaches the $4,100 region following the Greenback’s decline and comments from the Fed’s Warsh.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP extend sideways trading amid ETF outflows, US-Iran war escalation

Bitcoin hovers around $62,500 amid prevalent sideways trading. Meanwhile, major altcoins such as Ethereum and Ripple are holding above crucial support levels at $1,700 and $1.05, respectively, reflecting ongoing consolidation across the crypto sector.

Fed Chair Warsh reaffirms they will deliver price stability

While testifying on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the US House Financial Services Committee, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated that the Fed is making a commitment on price stability and the goal of 2% inflation.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June FOMC meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.