RBA SoMP: Feb rate cut to support demand, lowers 2015 GDP forecast

Ivan Delgado Independent Analyst

FXStreet (Bali) - The RBA Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy has been published, including a more in-depth assessment of the economic outlook, both domestic and international, together with an updated view on inflation, employment figures and the value of the Aussie.

Key headlines - via Reuters

Feb rate cut to support demand, provides no forward guidance

A$ above most estimates of fair value, providing less aid to economy than it could

Growth to be below trend for longer, spare capacity to last for some time yet

Lowers gdp forecast for 2015 by 0.25 ppt, similar cut to underlying inflation out to 2016

y/y gdp seen at 2.25-3.25 pct end 2015, 3-4 pct end 2016, 3-4.5 pct by june 2017

Underlying inflation seen at 2.25 pct mid 2015, 2-3 pct end 2015 out to june 2017

Unemployment to rise bit further, peak later than anticipated

Abs data, liaison suggests mining investment could fall by more than 10 pct in 2014/15

Non-mining investment still subdued, pick-up to occur later than previously expected

Housing market will need to be watched carefully, regulators working to contain risks

Fall in petrol prices likely to subtract 0.5 ppt from cpi in q1, boost household incomes

Ramp up in lng output slower than expected, still add 0.75 ppt to gdp in 2016/17

Uncertainties include outlook for commodity prices, divergent global monetary trends

China growth projected at or little below 7 pct in 2015, property market a key uncertainty

Author

Ivan Delgado

Independent Analyst

Established in the Asian continent since 2009, Ivan studied a degree in Business at the University Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona), while also earning a postgraduate degree in Business Administration.

GBP/USD clings to multi-day peaks below 1.3500

GBP/USD trades with marked gains on Friday, now giving away some gains following an earlier surpass of the key 1.3500 yardstick. Indeed, Cable gathers fresh steam amid the strong offered stance in the Greenback, all after US NFP badly missed expectations in July.

EUR/USD: Post-NFP bounce falters around 1.1580

EUR/USD reverses Thursday’s decline and trades with solid gains in the 1.1560 region, or two-month peaks, on Friday. The pair’s firm performance comes in a context of a sharp correction in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess disheartening US NFP readings.

How Wall Street rigs the game [Video]

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Peter Antico and Sean Stone to discuss the Paradigm of Money - an in-depth expose of financial market corruption, from naked shorting to the two-tier system that protects Wall Street.

XRP Price Forecast: XRP nears critical $1.00 support

Ripple (XRP) remains pressured on Friday, trading around $1.03 at the time of writing. The token appears to hold this current level as support but lacks a catalyst to sustain a knee-jerk rebound toward the next key resistance at $1.10.

Is Gold about to enter its biggest bull run since 2020?

Gold has stormed back into the spotlight and its next move could leave late buyers chasing. On August 5, the yellow metal surged almost 7% – roughly $174 – to close near $4,308 an ounce, posting one of its biggest daily advances in recent history. A weaker U.S dollar, falling Treasury yields, changing Federal Reserve expectations and renewed safe-haven demand all struck at once.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.