EUR/USD forecast: looking at risk trends – Commerzbank and Danske Bank

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD is extending its correction lower after the release of November’s US Payrolls on Friday, navigating the mid-1.08s amidst an uneventful start of the week.

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair “charted an inside day on Friday, attempting to absorb the massive rally from the day before. There is scope for a further advance to the 1.1034 200 day ma and even the 1.1087/97 September low and 28th October high. Key resistance remains the 1.1228/17 2014- 2015 downtrend and 55 week ma and while capped here the market will remain in a longer term down move”.

Furthermore, Analyst Kristoffer Lomholt at Danske Bank, added “Friday’s price actions, when EUR/USD actually moved higher after the stronger than expected non-farm payroll data, in our view, underscore how stretched EUR/USD positioning currently is and, although positioning is no barrier for renewed EUR/USD downside, it usually increases short-term correction risks. This is yet another argument why it might be difficult for EUR/USD to fall significantly in the near term”.

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Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

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