Silver advances above $57 despite Fed rate-hike bets, firmer US Dollar

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $57.20 on Monday, gaining 0.34% on the day at the time of writing. The white metal maintains a positive tone despite a modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields, as persistent geopolitical uncertainty continues to support demand for safe-haven assets.

The rebound in the Greenback and US bond yields limits the upside potential for Silver, as investors reassess the monetary policy outlook of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Higher interest rates typically weigh on non-yielding assets such as precious metals, while a stronger US Dollar makes Silver more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.95 after falling to 101.58 last week. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield recovers to approximately 5.12%, following Thursday's low of 5.03%.

The recovery comes after last week's sell-off in technology stocks, driven by concerns surrounding artificial intelligence valuations, prompting investors to seek safety in government bonds and precious metals. However, expectations of additional monetary tightening continue to limit the appeal of Silver.

Inflation remains a major concern for policymakers. Elevated energy prices, linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, continue to fuel price pressures across the US economy. Both the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded market expectations, reinforcing concerns that inflation could remain above the Fed's 2% target for longer than anticipated.

Against this backdrop, analysts at Nordea maintain their expectations for further monetary tightening, forecasting one additional Fed interest rate hike before the end of the year and another in 2027. The bank argues that monetary policy remains insufficiently restrictive given the resilience of the US economy and persistent inflationary pressures.

Market expectations also reflect this increasingly hawkish outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders assign a 17% chance to an interest rate increase at the October 27-28 meeting, while the chance of a hike in December stands at 90%.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has refrained from providing clear guidance on the timing of future policy decisions. Speaking in Bangkok on Friday, Warsh stated, "I don't prejudge meetings," leaving investors uncertain about the central bank's next move.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments continue to provide some support for Silver prices. Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated as negotiations between Washington and Tehran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz face significant obstacles.

Iran has offered to reopen the strategic waterway within seven days if the United States accepts its conditions. However, disagreements surrounding Tehran's nuclear programme continue to prevent a diplomatic breakthrough. Attacks on commercial vessels and ongoing fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis further reinforce concerns about global energy supplies.

These developments sustain demand for safe-haven assets, helping Silver resist pressure from rising Treasury yields and a firmer US Dollar. Nevertheless, US President Donald Trump's decision to temporarily ease sanctions on Russia raises the prospect of additional energy supplies, which could alleviate some inflationary pressures.

For now, Silver remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty, although expectations of further Fed interest rate hikes could continue to restrain its upward momentum.