Euro remains steady against Canadian Dollar following Germany's IFO business data

EUR/CAD maintains its position as the German IFO Institute Business Climate Index improves to 90.2 in October.
Deutsche Bank notes Moody's keeping France at Aa3 (negative outlook) defied expectations, offering market relief.
The Canadian Dollar faced pressure as crude oil fell after President Trump ruled out immediate military action against Iran.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/CAD depreciates after opening at a bullish gap, remaining in positive territory and trading around 1.5710 during European hours on Monday. The currency cross moves little following the release of Germany’s IFO business data.

The German IFO Institute Business Climate Index improves to 90.2 in October, from 89.9 in September, against the market expectations of 89.8. However, the IFO Current Assessment Index drops to 88.8 from the previous reading of 89.5. Expectations Index, an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations for the next six months, accelerates to 91.6 from the prior release of 90.4.

France gains breathing room as Moody’s holds Aa3 rating

Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight that France received a reprieve at the end of last week, noting that the sovereign “got a boost on Friday night as Moody’s defied market expectations and maintained their Aa3 rating (negative outlook).” This decision, they suggest, helped steady market nerves after recent volatility around French assets, even as investors remain mindful that the negative outlook keeps the risk of future action on the radar.

The EUR/CAD cross holds gains as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces challenges amid lower oil prices. Crude oil prices declined after US President Donald Trump ruled out immediate military action against Iran, stating, “there will not be a strike today,” according to Al Jazeera. This followed earlier remarks where Trump suggested Washington might need to “finish the job” or potentially reach a deal with Tehran amidst growing Iranian and Houthi threats against American interests in the region.

Rabobank sees BoC holding fire at October meeting

Strategists at Rabobank write that they “expect the Bank of Canada to hold the overnight policy rate at 2.25% at the October 28 meeting,” underscoring their view that the BoC will resist market pressure for further tightening and keep policy steady at its current setting.

Economic Indicator

IFO – Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

AUD/USD sits near a one-month top, above 0.7000 amid fresh USD selling

AUD/USD holds above 0.7000 through the Asian session, trading near a one-month high touched earlier this Monday amid renewed US Dollar selling. US bond yields decline further amid a modest pullback in crude oil prices, capping the USD recovery from a three-week low. Moreover, bets for a November RBA rate hike support the Aussie, though upside seems capped ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting, starting Tuesday.

USD/JPY struggles below 157.00 on weak USD; holds above one-month low ahead of Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Monday, stalling its recovery from the lowest level since September 18, touched Friday as a further decline in US bond yields weighs on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen benefits from a more hawkish BoJ, further weighing on the currency pair. The downside, however, seems limited as traders keenly await Fed and BoJ policy meetings later this week.

Gold sticks to modest recovery gains above $4,000 as Fed hike bets cap upside

Gold stages a modest recovery from the vicinity of a three-month low, trading above the $4,000 psychological mark through Monday’s Asian session amid a softer US Dollar. US President Donald Trump has ruled out immediate military action against Iran, triggering a modest pullback in crude oil prices. Furthermore, Federal Reserve officials have signaled no urgency to raise interest rates immediately.

Cardano's derivatives and on-chain data confirm bears in control

Cardano extends losses, trading below $0.202 after three consecutive weeks of more than 20% declines since early October. Selling pressure continues to build as weakening derivatives metrics, bearish on-chain signals and a deteriorating technical outlook point to further downside risks. Derivatives data shows a bearish bias for Cardano.

CFTC Report: WTI rally runs ahead of positioning

The week in one sentence: WTI prices surged while speculative longs were cut in the week to October 20, creating the clearest price/positioning divergence. Sterling and the Canadian Dollar led the constructive currency shift, while Yen longs also rebuilt. Speculators turned less constructive on the WTI, reducing their net exposure to around 89.3K contracts.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.