Euro jumps vs Swiss Franc after SNB decision, German IFO data supports

EUR/CHF gains 0.24% on Thursday and trades around 0.9415 at the time of writing, after reaching an intraday high of 0.9433 following the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) monetary policy decision. The pair benefits from weakness in the Swiss Franc (CHF), while the Euro (EUR) also finds support from stronger-than-expected German economic data.

The SNB left its key interest rate unchanged at 0%, in line with market expectations. The central bank slightly raised its inflation forecasts, now expecting price growth of 0.7% this year and 0.8% in both 2027 and 2028. However, the SNB considers that medium-term inflationary pressure has increased only slightly and expects inflation to rise further in the fourth quarter before declining over the course of 2027.

SNB Chair Martin Schlegel noted that the recent depreciation of the Swiss Franc partly reflects widening interest rate differentials with other currency areas. He added that relatively low interest rates in Switzerland make the currency less attractive compared with the Euro and the US Dollar (USD), while reiterating that the central bank remains willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary.

The SNB nevertheless maintained a cautious stance on the economic outlook. The institution sees developments in the global economy as the main risk to Switzerland, particularly amid tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty surrounding trade policies and exchange rate developments. SNB Governing Board member Petra Tschudin said Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was exceptionally strong in the second quarter, partly due to robust activity in the chemicals and pharmaceutical industry, but the central bank expected more moderate growth over the coming quarters.

On the Euro side, German data released on Thursday provided additional support to EUR/CHF. Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index rose to 89.9 in September from 88.8 in August, beating the market consensus of 89. The Current Assessment Index also improved to 89.5 from 88.5 previously, while the Expectations Index climbed to 90.4, its highest level since February.

The combination of a Swiss Franc pressured by Switzerland’s low interest rates and stronger-than-expected German confidence data allows EUR/CHF to maintain its positive bias on Thursday.

EUR/CHF technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, EUR/CHF trades at 0.9417, holding above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 0.9415 but still capped by the 200-period SMA at 0.9434 and nearby horizontal resistance at 0.9433. This configuration keeps the near-term tone cautiously bearish, with the pair attempting to recover from recent lows while upward extension remains constrained. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 65 suggests firm but increasingly overbought momentum, hinting that rallies into the overhead barrier could struggle to sustain.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered between the horizontal level at 0.9433 and the 200-period SMA at 0.9434, and a clear hourly close above this zone would be needed to ease the current cap and open the way toward higher levels. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 100-period SMA at 0.9415, followed by the former psychological pivot at 0.9400 and deeper support at 0.9373, where a break would likely reinstate selling pressure toward the recent base.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)