EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro struggles to find follow-through above 1.1200
- EUR/USD bounces from lows near 1.1100 but is struggling to extend gains beyond 1.1200.
- Eurozone Manufacturing data was supportive, but concerns about France's debt remain weighing.
- The technical picture shows a corrective reaction, with the bullish momentum still fragile.
The Euro (EUR) holds a positive tone against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, favoured by positive Eurozone factory activity data and concerns about US elections. The EURUSD pair, however, is struggling to find acceptance above the 1.1200 level, which leaves price action in no man’s land between the nearly 18-month lows just above 1.1100 hit on Thursday and a cluster of resistance between 1.1255 and 1.1285.
Upward revisions to October’s Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index figures have provided a fresh boost to the Euro, which had already taken advantage of investors’ concerns about the outcome of the US midterm elections, which will take place on Tuesday.
EUR/USD, however, steadied later on, as markets put the delicate financial stability of some Eurozone members back into the equation. Fitch delivered an unscheduled ratings review on France, shifting its outlook on French sovereign debt from stable to negative and signalling another ratings review by the end of February.
"Let’s see whether this unscheduled move puts much pressure on the OAT-Bund spread today,” says Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, who also argues that " the news limits the potential for EUR/USD to rebound on softer energy prices.”
Technical Analysis: Immediate resistance is at the 1.1255 - 1.1285 area
EUR/USD trades around 1.1220, keeping the bearish near-term tone intact, yet with momentum indicators showing fading traction. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.5 has lifted out of oversold territory but remains below the midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally positive, pointing to an easing bearish trend rather than reversing structure.
Bulls are likely to find significant resistance between the October 22 high at 1.1256 and the October 2 high at 1.1285. Further up, the next target is the area between June lows, at 1.1325, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1337
On the downside, below Friday's low, at 1.1104, bears are likely to be attracted by the May 2025 lows around 1.1050 ahead of the 1.1000 psychological area.
(This story was corrected on November 2 at 13:23 GMT to clarify that EUR/USD hit a nearly 18-month low on Thursday, not Friday.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.49% | -0.19% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.40% | 0.14% | -0.67% | |
| EUR | 0.49% | 0.31% | 0.69% | 0.51% | 0.88% | 0.64% | -0.16% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | -0.31% | 0.40% | 0.21% | 0.57% | 0.33% | -0.46% | |
| JPY | -0.21% | -0.69% | -0.40% | -0.18% | 0.18% | -0.07% | -0.89% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.51% | -0.21% | 0.18% | 0.37% | 0.11% | -0.67% | |
| AUD | -0.40% | -0.88% | -0.57% | -0.18% | -0.37% | -0.24% | -1.04% | |
| NZD | -0.14% | -0.64% | -0.33% | 0.07% | -0.11% | 0.24% | -0.79% | |
| CHF | 0.67% | 0.16% | 0.46% | 0.89% | 0.67% | 1.04% | 0.79% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
