Breaking: US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 53.3 in June
- The US ISM Manufacturing PMI lost traction in June.
- The US Dollar adds to Tuesday’s uptick beyond 101.00.
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) data showed the Manufacturing PMI edging lower to 53.3 in June, down from May's print and analysts’ expectations of 54.
Meanwhile, the Prices Paid Index, which tracks inflation in the sector, fell to 73 from 82.1. The Employment Index strengthened a tad to 49.7 from 48.6, and the New Orders Index deflated to 56 from 56.8.
Market reaction
The Greenback extends its upward bias on Wednesday, motivating the US Dollar Index (DXY) to maintain the trade well above the 101.00 barrier while flirting with multi-day highs.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.24% | -0.01% | -0.10% | 0.09% | 0.23% | -0.02% | 0.11% | |
| EUR | -0.24% | -0.25% | -0.31% | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.30% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.01% | 0.25% | -0.06% | 0.11% | 0.23% | -0.03% | 0.16% | |
| JPY | 0.10% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.16% | 0.32% | 0.02% | 0.20% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | 0.14% | -0.11% | -0.16% | 0.15% | -0.15% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.23% | -0.00% | -0.23% | -0.32% | -0.15% | -0.29% | -0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.02% | 0.30% | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.15% | 0.29% | 0.18% | |
| CHF | -0.11% | 0.11% | -0.16% | -0.20% | -0.04% | 0.11% | -0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the US ISM Manufacturing report for June at 08:00 GMT.
- The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is seen unchanged at 54 in June.
- Investors will also follow the ISM Prices index and the Employment index.
- EUR/USD seems to have met some resistance ahead of 1.1450.
Attention shifts to Wednesday’s release of the June ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), one of the most closely followed indicators of activity in the US manufacturing sector and an important barometer of the broader economy.
Markets expect the headline index to remain unchanged at 54, matching May’s print. That would be the sixth consecutive month with the index above the key 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction, suggesting manufacturing activity continues to expand despite ongoing challenges.
But the story of the manufacturing sector is only part of the story. The broader US economy has continued to prove impressively resilient thanks to better-than-expected growth and a labour market that has largely held firm despite high interest rates. That resilience has kept the narrative of US exceptionalism alive, even as factory activity remains muted.
But it will be more than just the headline figure that matters for investors. Signs of improving demand, new orders or employment could raise confidence that manufacturing is slowly stabilising, while another disappointing report would add to concerns that the sector is struggling to gain meaningful traction despite the economy's broader strength.
What to expect from the ISM Manufacturing PMI report?
The manufacturing sector advanced to levels last seen nearly two years ago in May, with the business activity managing to stay in the expansion territory for the fifth consecutive month, extending the auspicious start to the year.
The biggest jump was in new orders, with the related index climbing to 56.8, its highest in the past four months, suggesting demand remained solid. At the same time, price pressures eased as the Prices Paid Index fell to 82.1 from 84.5, showing that inflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector appear to be slowly cooling. The picture in the labour market has also improved after the Employment Index rose to 48.6 from 46.4 in the prior month, but it still remained well short of the 50.0 mark, signalling that hiring conditions are still tough.
A reading above 50.0 on the ISM Manufacturing PMI is generally considered a sign of expansion in factory activity, with a reading below that point indicating contraction. However, history suggests that sustained levels above 42.5 are still generally consistent with growth in the overall US economy.
A stronger-than-expected PMI would likely boost confidence in the resilience of the US economy for markets and underpin equities and broader risk sentiment.
But the implications for the US Dollar are less straightforward. A stronger report could also stoke expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates at restrictive levels for longer, providing more support for the currency. A stronger report tends to favour the Greenback. On the flip side, a softer-than-expected reading could raise concerns about the manufacturing outlook and dampen sentiment.
When will the ISM Manufacturing PMI report be released, and how could it affect EUR/USD?
The ISM Manufacturing PMI report is scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT on Wednesday.
Prior to the data release, EUR/USD has managed to extend its rebound from last week’s multi-month troughs, although extra gains seem to have met a tough barrier ahead of the 1.1450 level.
Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, explains that further advances need to initially clear 1.1450 to attempt a move toward the weekly peak at 1.1622 (June 15). Immediately to the upside comes the critical 200-day SMA at 1.1657, preceding the weekly high at 1.1685 (May 29).
Piovano also noted that on the downside, the pair faces initial contention at the 2026 bottom of 1.1324 (June 24). A breach below this level could spark a likely challenge to the 1.1300 round level, ahead of the weekly floor at 1.1210 (May 29, 2025).
Piovano added that the outlook remains tilted to further weakness as long as spot trades below its 200-day SMA.
He also pointed out that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 37, indicating a pick-up in the bearish stance, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 36 suggests that the current trend is quite firm.
Economic Indicator
ISM Manufacturing PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The indicator is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that factory activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jul 01, 2026 14:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 54
Previous: 54
Source: Institute for Supply Management
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are watched closely as they shine a light on the labour market and inflation.
GDP FAQs
A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.
A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.
When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
Author
FXStreet Team
FXStreet
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