What's moving Bitcoin this week?

BTC holds steady below $78k after its worst October performance in 12 years 

• Binance hack keeps the mood cautious. 
• Tech earnings today from Apple and AMD come amid AI wobble. 
• US midterm elections have historically come in a bearish Q4. 
• US NFP data could cement December rate hike expectations. 
• Institutional demand fades.  
• BTC technical analysis. 

Bitcoin has kicked off November in a cautious mood, hovering around $77.8K after a sharp decline in October, as investors grapple with deteriorating risk sentiment, a sharp tech sell-off, heavy ETF outflows and a record $6.3 billion Binance hack. 

Bitcoin fell 7.3% in October, marking its worst October performance in 12 years. After finishing last month near $77.5K, the largest cryptocurrency is virtually unchanged today. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged from 70 at the start of October to just 36 by the end of the month, as the mood shifted from greed to fear in just under four weeks. 

1. Binance hack nerves 

Bitcoin plunged over 4% on Thursday after Binance suffered a record $6.3 billion hack, which it blamed on North Korea-linked groups. Binance users have pulled $5 billion from the exchange as it resumed services on Sunday, with the theft reviving worries over security. 

However, Binance has pledged to cover the losses, which could help ease fears going forward. Still, for now, the mood remains cautious. 

2. Tech earnings amid AI wobble 

The sell-off in Bitcoin also came as tech stocks came under pressure. Worries surrounding debt-funded AI investment and the potential returns on those investments sent the Nasdaq almost 8% lower across the month, its worst monthly performance since October. 

This matters because Bitcoin is trading in close correlation with U.S. tech stocks. As U.S. tech earnings continue, with the likes of Apple and AMD due to report after the close today, further weakness in tech stocks could pull Bitcoin lower. 

3. Midterm elections 

U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday are another key focus. The Democrats are widely expected to win the House of Representatives, while the race for the Senate is looking much tighter. 

On a historical basis, Bitcoin has ended Q4 lower in each of the past three midterm election years. All three of those periods coincided with Bitcoin bear markets. 

4. US jobs data 

On the economic calendar, U.S. nonfarm payroll data on Friday could be a key catalyst, with expectations for payrolls to rise by 65,000 after adding 29,000 in September. 

The data comes after the Fed left rates unchanged, insisting that more data was needed before further moves. A stronger-than-expected NFP reading, combined with last week's rise in core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, could cement expectations surrounding a December hike. This could be bearish for Bitcoin, which tends to perform better in lower interest rate environments. 

5. Institutional demand weakens 

Institutional selling also added pressure, with BTC ETFs recording $643.3 million in outflows on Friday, the largest daily withdrawal of the month, reversing four sessions of inflows. 

Across October, net outflows of $515 million were recorded after three straight months of net inflows. For the price to recover, net inflows would need to resume. 

BTC technical analysis 

BTC's sell-off from $87K found support at $76.3K, where the 200 EMA converges with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the $57.7K low to the $87.3K high. 

The price has since staged a modest recovery moving back above the 100 EMA to $79k. So, BTC now trades between key moving averages, keeping the near-term bias slightly bearish. 

The 50 EMA at $80.3K represents immediate resistance, while the 100 and 200 EMAs at $77.8K and $76.4K provide support below. This leaves the longer-term technical picture relatively constructive, although momentum remains weak, with the RSI below 50 signalling. 

Should momentum recover, buyers will need to reclaim the 50 EMA at $80.3K to improve the near-term outlook and open the way towards $ 84.3k, the mid-October high, followed by the $87.3K high. A break above this level would establish a higher high. 

On the downside, sellers will look for a break below the 100 EMA and 200 EMA support zone around $76.3K. A sustained move below here could give sellers further traction towards $72.6K, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, before attention turns to the psychological $70K mark.